Loading ...Gold COT Reports
Here are a couple of interesting Gold COT analysis reports. The first is from May 22 and shows most small speculators are on the sidelines as almost all Guru’s are bearish. It would seem the participation in this rally has had a rather low participation rate.
Can the “Herd” of small specs and Guru’s on the sidelines be right? They may well be but that would be contrary to what normally happens in markets.
http://prostedywagacje.blogspot.com/2016/05/gold-and-silver-alternative-look-at.html
In contrast, pull up virtually any Miner chart, on the weekly, and take a look at the OBV indicator. This indicator alone shows me that Smart Money is accumulating.
Lastly, here is another COT report from this week that sheds some light on what the Commercials are up to:
* While speculative bulls were dropping their gold contracts, larger commercial traders were buying up gold long contracts at the fastest rate in the report’s history.
* While we have been bearish on gold for the past few weeks, we now think it is a good time for investors to start re-establishing gold positions.
Interesting….thanks for sharing!
Surf: Who do you define as comprising the herd here?
I define the “Herd” as the Small Specs who are on the sidelines waiting for their favorite Guru’s to give them a Green Light. As far as I can tell, most of the Guru’s (e.g. Martin Armstrong, Kimble Charts, Bob Hoye, Gary at SMT, etc.) are saying we will be going much lower.
The Guru’s and Small Specs may be correct but that would be contrary to what normally happens in markets especially given the evidence of what smart money is doing here.
“pull up virtually any Miner chart, on the weekly, and take a look at the OBV indicator. This indicator alone shows me that Smart Money is accumulating.”
Well I just did, and I don’t see anything to be bullish about. By and large, OBV peaked over a month ago, its been falling steadily and in some cases its now negative.
Generally, I haven’t found OBV to be all that reliable as a timing device for entries and exits. But I don’t see anything bullish in the weeklies I just reviewed.
Perhaps there’s an alternative way of interpreting this decline that I’ve overlooked.
Pedro, Take a look at this analysis and let me no what you think? TIA.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/41561/gold-and-silver-at-significant-support-new-story-developing