I have the USD on day 22 of its shorter term Trading/Daily Cycle and in the heart of its timing band to find a short term TC Low (or DCL as some call it). But what will cause it to bounce? Perhaps Janet in her speech on Monday will be “Yellen” that that a June/July rate increase is still on? For the Fed to have any credibility, however, they must actually raise rates rather than just “jawboning” about it.

I show that the last USD Trading Cycle was very short at only 15 days and we often times see a short cycle followed by a longer one to balance things out. The current USD Trading Cycle was the most bullish we have seen in some time but I show that Price topped out right at the daily 150ema and at one of my down trend lines. I also believe that the bullish move was predicated on the Fed actually raising rates in June.

So, I see two possibilities here:

1) The Fed surprises and actually raises rates in June and the USD takes off again (any bets on this?).

2) The Fed does not raise rates and the USD gets a brief new Trading Cycle bounce, perhaps on some jawboning until the announcement comes out on June 15th at the next FMOC meeting and the USD quickly rolls over again. This scenario would allow the USD to continue its move into a longer term lower Intermediate Cycle low, perhaps in the July/Aug timeframe based on my longer counts.

Note: I believe the USD’s last 5-6 month IC Low was back in Feb but several professional Cycle Newsletters think that it just occurred in May (Gary at SMT and LikesMoney). I think, however, that 8 months would be a very long time for an IC Low and that is only one of the reasons I think that Feb hosted the last IC Low for the USD.

Here is LikesMoney’s weekend freebie and it appears he is thinking that the ICL will now extend further out. I find it is critical to get the Longer Cycles right as they dominate the shorter ones and determine their outcome.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/05/potential-game-changer/

Screenshot 2016-06-05 10.56.16