Loading ...The 200 week moving average seems to have stalled the HUI decline. Question is, will it turn around here ? $Gold similarly contained within the $20 range between the two moving averages. Place your bets…
No sign of a bear here 🙂
Spurred on by Fullys ‘Simple Plan’ (which I love), and Graddhys excellent Dollar posts, I had a look at one of my favourite indicators on the weekly chart of the Dollar going back 5 years. If you believe the Dollar is going to rise in a meaningful way from here, you must also believe that the TRIX indicator is going to be wrong for the first time in 5 years.
You can clearly see, we’re either looking at testing 104-105, or alternatively 97-98, which is a confluence of support since we took off from 80 in the Summer of 2014, and the MA (50). This may be too simple for some, but to my eye, it stacks up, and the odds are in favour of 97-98. There is always the exception that proves the rule I suppose…
Edit: Obvious, I know, but this wedge is closing up within the next 18 months, so a longer term resolution and much larger move is on the horizon.
Feels a bit like walking through a swamp. Trumps speech in the US tonight may get things moving. One way or the other. I’m a long term bull, but right here, I’m neither bullish nor bearish. I’m taking into account all of the really well thought out and researched posts from everyone on here over the last few days. Holding my positions (maybe foolishly), but with a slightly revised point at which I sell (based on retaining a 100% profit since getting into the miners just over a year ago) – so more based on retaining a set profit, rather than any technical level. As it happens, if it drops to that point, we’ll have crossed a few ‘lines in the sand’ anyway. If I wasn’t sitting on a profit, I do realise I wouldn’t have this ‘luxury’ of course. I know I shouldn’t, but I’m sticking with my gut instinct, which is for a move down in the dollar/up in gold. Not out of pure hope and wishful thinking, but the macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe. Greece and Italy are in trouble again, with debts/banking issues, and we have various ‘problematic’ European elections coming up. It’s just the kind of environment that should be supportive of gold price going forwards.
Notice how the downtrend resistance stopped the advance last Summer, and is about to meet the sticky zone around 250. If we can break through that next time, we’re out of the swamp.
Moved nicely above £1000/oz now. Price in Euros and many other currencies has advanced well too. For those outside the US who have some investments in physical, all of the recent political turmoil is supporting the gold price and pushing it higher.
I’ll let the charts speak for me
I came close to bailing out of a large chunk of my PM miners today, but I decided to wait and see what tomorrow brings. Getting a little nervous, like plenty of others no doubt.
Whatever the reason, and wherever they go next, the following is true. The HUI had progressed further than gold in terms of their moving averages. The HUI had powered through both its 50 and 200 week moving averages. Gold had been lagging. They have now ‘met in the middle’, quite literally. The HUI has retraced to a position between the 50 and 200 week moving average, and gold has advanced to get itself into the same position – between the 50 and 200 week moving average. One played catch-up, whilst the other retraced a little. Now that they are both in the same place with respect to their moving averages, what next ? Here are the charts for you to have a look at and ponder.
Perhaps they remain ‘trapped’ for a while, and the next significant move will be triggered by what’s going on in the US/Europe/China. If that’s the case, I have to remain bullish, because that’s a whole load of uncertainty and turmoil, and we all know how PM’s react to that. Eventually.
This is a good sign if it holds. Broken clear of $1250 resistance.
Let’s see if we can hold onto the gains.
I’ve posted on these two before. Quest Rare Minerals and Lico Energy Metals. If we’re in a bull market, we should see healthy pauses/pullbacks like this one, but then a resumption of the uptrend. Like the PM stocks, these have been sending me to sleep lately, but lets wait and see…
Another chart to mull over…
$1243 has been acting as resistance – it’s the downward sloping 200 week moving average. If the indicators are to be believed, there is a good chance of breaking through very soon.
Our old friend, the Philadelphia Index
Cup of tea anyone ?
Just a gold chart going back to 1970. Nothing too technical. No matter how much I stare at this, the conflicting views keep pulling me one way, then another. Of course, the shorter term charts will give the bull/bear/buy/sell signals, but it’s the longer term direction that fascinates me. Looking at the unstable world we live in, with so much political turmoil, national debt, a soaring stock market, and the undervalued miners, the little voice in my head is saying we’re on the verge of a huge move to the upside.
Tokyo Electric recently tried to cancel an order with Cameco worth over a billion dollars http://business.financialpost.com/news/mining/cameco-corp-vows-to-fight-back-as-japans-tepco-cancels-1-3-billion-uranium-contract
They’ve had some more positive headlines recently http://www.fool.ca/2017/02/15/cameco-corp-upgraded-is-the-stock-ready-to-explode/
So how do the charts look ? Here’s a look at the daily chart going back to 2000
Reminds me of another big wedge in gold (coincidence ?)…
They’re both heading towards a decision point. Anyway looking more closely at Cameco and zooming in a bit, you can see price bouncing nicely off support…
The daily chart may help tell us which way this is going…
I know that some think it may be another year or so before the Uranium sector reaches escape velocity, but this looks bullish to me at the moment.
I posted on this one last week. Up another 19% today.
Not strictly TA, but at least it’s not politics/religion 😉
Obvious I know, but interesting to see the relative rates of increase.
I have a handful of these in my portfolio. Beaten down, unloved stocks, that I’ve read about and heard recommended, done some background research and invested a relatively small amount, knowing it’s a risk, but with some really good upside potential. 100% in the last 3 months or so, and 1000% from the bottom 18 months or so ago.
What about the longer term ? You can put the recent move into perspective by zooming out a bit…
Quest Rare Minerals to be precise. Lets see if the moving averages support price here.
After yesterdays close, I thought I would start looking at the evidence on the charts. I’ve already posted about the miners having broken above their 50 and 200 week moving averages, MACD bullish crossover and approaching bullish TRIX crossover. Gold is trailing and still has to close above it’s moving averages. The orange circles on the following HUI chart, highlight these bullish indicators. I was hoping for a higher close though, because it seems to be leaving us with a rising wedge. I don’t know much about the myriad of chartology scenarios, but isn’t this formation bearish ? I should say that I’m still in the bull camp, and expect pullbacks to be just a part of the medium to long term march upwards towards last Summers highs. If we are in a new bull (and I believe we are), those highs from last Summer need to be surpassed.
Up 10% at the time of writing. Some indicators are now on the high side, but MACD has really only just got going. Will we see another explosive move in the next few weeks ?
All looking good here too. Small, short-term pullbacks, no doubt, but the chart says the trend is up.
But it’s important gold makes a move soon…
I’m pretty sure it will, but you really can’t take your eye off the ball. As long as gold breaks through those moving averages and we get a TRIX cross, this will be a good few weeks/months.
Just another chart 😉
It’s nicer to post when a stock is rising, but I mentioned this one a couple of times, and it’s down today, so I thought I’d have a look at it for anyone interested. I’m holding this one for the medium to long term.
