Loading ...Reading The Charts – HUI
After yesterdays close, I thought I would start looking at the evidence on the charts. I’ve already posted about the miners having broken above their 50 and 200 week moving averages, MACD bullish crossover and approaching bullish TRIX crossover. Gold is trailing and still has to close above it’s moving averages. The orange circles on the following HUI chart, highlight these bullish indicators. I was hoping for a higher close though, because it seems to be leaving us with a rising wedge. I don’t know much about the myriad of chartology scenarios, but isn’t this formation bearish ? I should say that I’m still in the bull camp, and expect pullbacks to be just a part of the medium to long term march upwards towards last Summers highs. If we are in a new bull (and I believe we are), those highs from last Summer need to be surpassed.
Aha…NStar, I sense a tinge of Always Be Cautious ie ABC may be around… I am haunted by Rambus’s recent $ chart above gold….
Let’s not forget when he put forth 975 before this recent upleg, he could be a tad early. Rambus has an unbeatable reputation of sighting bears in this hideandseek.
Not so much always be cautious – just wanting to examine all the evidence and hear everyone’s views.
Wedges , Facts and Fictions
https://rambus1.com/2012/12/31/wedges/
For the Record Rambus is Short Term Bullish PMs , the Bear Long Term Scenario is Only a Potential
if 1100 would be tested and broken.
That Rambus link is great. It helps to reinforce my belief that ‘weight of evidence’ is much more important than any individual TA method. At any given point in time, the probability of price action going up is x % and down is y %. x and y being any percentage EXCEPT 0 and 100 (and they must add up to 100 of course, unless you take into account the probability of no price change). That being the case, it comes down to assessing as many indicators/supports/resistance, cycles etc as possible. Like ensemble weather forecasting – if they all point to a similar outcome, confidence levels are high, if they all indicate a range of likely outcomes, confidence has to be low. I’ve been a qualified professional weather forecaster for nearly 30 years and there are so many parallels between this and predicting future weather.