Spurred on by Fullys ‘Simple Plan’ (which I love), and Graddhys excellent Dollar posts, I had a look at one of my favourite indicators on the weekly chart of the Dollar going back 5 years. If you believe the Dollar is going to rise in a meaningful way from here, you must also believe that the TRIX indicator is going to be wrong for the first time in 5 years.

You can clearly see, we’re either looking at testing 104-105, or alternatively 97-98, which is a confluence of support since we took off from 80 in the Summer of 2014, and the MA (50). This may be too simple for some, but to my eye, it stacks up, and the odds are in favour of 97-98. There is always the exception that proves the rule I suppose…

Edit: Obvious, I know, but this wedge is closing up within the next 18 months, so a longer term resolution and much larger move is on the horizon.