Goldtent TA Paradise

Come on, you can do it…

Rumours of a name change as they diversify into Lithium. On the long term chart todays 32% move isn’t even visible

You can sure see it on a shorter time frame though

Back to $50 would be nice, lol.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/176286/arian-silver-learns-lithium-is-sexier-than-silver

With this backdrop, if gold doesn’t climb, I really, really, really want to know why.

On the move today. Up over 14%.

Fiddling around with some lines on the chart, and I’m wondering if the (usually bullish) descending megaphone is in play. It seems to also have a support line (shown in blue), much the same as last years move. Curiously, at the same angle too.

http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html

Just had a quick look at this pair myself, and it does look like another reason to be bullish on gold. Thanks for drawing my attention to it again. It could be that the Yen has a bigger influence right now, and as many have said, gold may not drop like a stone if the dollar breaks up. We’ll see.

I think the dollar would have an uphill task (pun intended), to make much progress here, but some carefully crafted words from US politicians could do it. I’m not at all sure that’s what they want though, as a weaker dollar is beneficial for US manufacturing (one of Trumps big campaigning points). I’m cautiously gold bullish and dollar bearish, but the charts will, as always, give the game away in due course.

Up over 10% today

Place your bets please…

at least not yet

Following on from Graddhys post – If you think the symmetrical triangle is important, the HUI is so close and silver is right there…

I realise different platforms and the way you draw it makes a difference, but the point is still valid. Make or break…

IF gold fails to break out of its (usually bullish) symmetrical triangle, it will no doubt be accompanied by the dollar breaking out of it’s symmetrical triangle. If the dollar were to rise to the 120 target I’ve heard banded about, that would (in very simple terms) equate to gold in dollars being priced 20% lower. That would put it back in the $1050-$1100 ballpark.

I’m currently 70/30 in favour of gold up/dollar down (given what’s going on in Europe and the rest of the world). Sometimes feels like I’m frozen to the spot as a pair of headlights move towards me at 100 mph. These 2 charts are probably all you need to watch right now, and we’re getting closer and closer to a resolution with every passing day. If the dollar breaks up and gold doesn’t do the same (as some suggest it might), this could end badly for gold/silver and the miners. A rapid exit could be needed. The upside would be another brilliant entry point when the dust settles. Every cloud has a silver (and gold) lining. Stay nimble Goldtenters 😉

Two alternative companies well positioned to benefit if we are indeed embarking on a new bull run in rare earth minerals to support the burgeoning electric car market. I have a small speculative position in both, and plan to hold for the medium to long term (1-3 years).

As per Graddhys expectations (and excellent charts/posts) things are panning out quite nicely for us. The dollar has dropped out of its triangle (shown in green). The bottom rail of the much longer term symmetrical triangle comes in at around 98.4 (depending on how you draw it, and whether you draw to the ‘spikes’ or not). There is secondary support just above 97 if you use the blue rail drawn from the 2016 lows. If that fails (and isn’t re-taken quickly) things get very nasty for the dollar. The symmetrical triangle (usually bullish) is negated, and the bearish megaphone pattern with the bottom rail shown by the dotted red line comes into play at around 92. If that goes, we are likely to retrace the entire move since 2014 and return to somewhere around 80.

The gold chart is approaching a very important point too…

Happy trading, and hold onto your hats 😉

Wonder if that will move the markets on Monday…

It’s been extending the wedge pattern all day today, in an ever tightening trading range. We’ll get our resolution next week. I’m out of circulation until Friday, but I’ll be keeping an eye on it occasionally.

Still looking good from a chartology point of view. If we bounce at or just above the MA(50), we’ll be good to go. This company should be well positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for Lithium/Cobalt as the electric cars popularity gains momentum.

It’s not until you zoom out on the non log chart that you can see just how far this stock has been hammered into the ground.

I only have a relatively small investment here – ‘penny stocks’ are always high risk, but they can be exciting.

Edit: Noticed a few words missing on the second chart – should say ‘from where we are today’

Is wedging a word ? Anyway, IF we move up from here we could see a quick pop to $1239. It’s a measured $11 move which coincides almost exactly with the MA(200).

IF we breakout of the wedge rather than breakdown.

As with many things in life, nothing is certain, but I’m remaining bullish after this stock bottomed in early 2016. At first glance we have a possible bear flag forming…

TRIX is showing a build in momentum though, and the MA(50) is rising towards the MA(200) after the recent uptrend in price. We’ve just tagged the MA(50), and a bounce here would be encouraging. You can look at differently though…

Now that looks like an inverse head and shoulders to my eye, which would mean we need to breach the neckline decisively. If reverse symmetry applies, the next few weeks/months would be pretty exciting. On a non-log scale, you can see what I mean…

I should say that in my view, I would never invest large sums in stocks like these, but I have a handful of these kind of plays – keeps things interesting !

…just puked. Let’s see where this ends up.

FOMC looming – which way are we headed ?

Price has been backing off, and is about to test the MA (50) at 0.166. The MA(50) is rising toward the MA(200), which is what you want to see.

Latest news on their Teledyne project https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/781-tsx-venture/lic/29568-lico-energy-metals-inc-plans-confirmation-drilling-at-the-teledyne-cobalt-project-cobalt-ontario.html

Depending on how you draw the your support and resistance lines you could interpret it as a bearish rising wedge (around 66% resolve to the downside and 33% to the upside). This is a hold for me at the moment. I like this company, and think they stand to benefit from the increasing prices of, and demand for, Cobalt/Lithium. I’m accepting of the fact that it could, worse case, briefly drop, as per the chart, but in terms of risk/reward, the upside potential is significant.

I would like to wait and see how price reacts at the MA(50), and if that fails, the orange support line, but a turn could occur soon.

If you’re a bull it’s a question of how much longer until the next big move up. Beware the bottom rail though – it’s a pretty strong ‘line in the sand’ for me. The current symmetrical triangle reaches its apex (the way I’ve drawn it), by June.

The longer term symmetrical triangle reaches its apex next January.

I think well see a decisive move one way or the other before then though.

Edit – to correct the first chart !

Mathematically speaking a fractal is basically something which, when you look a small part of it, it resembles the whole. A bit like a triangle, made up of triangles…

Here’s the $Gold chart over the last year or two…

And here it is over the last 17 years…

So we have two bullish symmetrical triangles (higher lows and lower highs), one within the other…

If we drop out of this to the downside, I don’t even want to contemplate where it might end up. That scenario seems unlikely to me though, when you consider all the uncertainty and instability in the world right now, coupled with physical gold demand that paper price will surely struggle to control. What if we’re on the cusp of a ‘repricing, event similar to what happened in the late 1970’s…

Those triangles are closing up, so we will all know the answer before too long.

Here’s the theory, courtesy of StockCharts.com…

Here’s the current HUI, with my annotations…

If this is a continuation pattern, we go up. If not, we don’t. Statement of the obvious I guess, and we won’t know until it breaks one way or the other. Let’s be optimistic for a moment. If we break up, I’ve used the example above, and this is what I get…

Notice, I did put the alternative, rather depressing scenario in there. IF we break down, it’s probably not going to stop until we reach the old lows (in my honest opinion). The evidence from ‘cycles’ seems supportive of a bounce or continued uptrend though. Fundamentally, there are good arguments for moving up or down, depending on how you see the inflation/deflation/dollar thing going. I would urge caution, whilst being quietly optimistic, based on the weight of evidence. IF we return to $1050 gold and 100 HUI (or less) it would be another great buying opportunity for those brave enough, in what would, once again, feel like a dead sector. Keep alert, and always give credence to both sides of an argument, if they’re supported by good evidence.

Needs to bounce soon though…