Here’s the theory, courtesy of StockCharts.com…

 

Here’s the current HUI, with my annotations…

If this is a continuation pattern, we go up. If not, we don’t. Statement of the obvious I guess, and we won’t know until it breaks one way or the other. Let’s be optimistic for a moment. If we break up, I’ve used the example above, and this is what I get…

Notice, I did put the alternative, rather depressing scenario in there. IF we break down, it’s probably not going to stop until we reach the old lows (in my honest opinion). The evidence from ‘cycles’ seems supportive of a bounce or continued uptrend though. Fundamentally, there are good arguments for moving up or down, depending on how you see the inflation/deflation/dollar thing going. I would urge caution, whilst being quietly optimistic, based on the weight of evidence. IF we return to $1050 gold and 100 HUI (or less) it would be another great buying opportunity for those brave enough, in what would, once again, feel like a dead sector. Keep alert, and always give credence to both sides of an argument, if they’re supported by good evidence.