Goldtent TA Paradise

As you know, I’ve been posting this chart for a long time. It became THE gold chart to watch in June 2019 when price bounced off the arc AND broke out of the flag. This confirmed the validity of both patterns. The rest is simple mathematics, and tells us, in very clear terms that the current leg (prior to the drop into the 8 year cycle low) will take us to between $2790 and $3170. We then drop into that big 8 year low. I expect a 30% drop, taking us back to $2000 in 2023. The next leg up after that should be huge, taking us to $5000 at least.

My chart software can’t keep up – $2014 Gold and $26 Silver – this is getting out of hand

I’ve been meaning to make this point for a while. So-called negative divergance on the technical indicators can be very bullish. Today was a perfect example. We could get a smash down at any point, but the thing to note is that the non-confirming indicators did nothing to stop price rising. When the indicators broke out of their downtrend price rose more rapidly.

Almost there…

This is it guys – if spot gold closes above $2000, it might, just might, ignite a buying frenzy. If not, the reversal will be swift and fast. Place your bets now.

Miners have broken out (again)

This is one possible scenario, and helps to give us a bigger picture ‘backdrop’ to the daily/weekly price moves.

It worked for gold, now cryptos are hitching a ride on the arc

Fission Uranium is up 100% in the last month. Cameco is back-testing the breakout. All very bullish.

Yesterdays drop was likely just a ‘blip’

Who wins ? You decide. One thing I will say though…sell into strength, buy into weakness. A much bigger correction will (in my view) unfold sometime soon.

Iran official death toll around 17,000

The truth seems rather different

https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.radiofarda.com/amp/iran-coronavirus-deaths-three-times-more-than-official-figures—bbc-documents/30761188.html

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-coronavirus-update-over-81400-deaths-august-2-2020-600-pm-cest/

You can be sure many other countries are covering up their true death figures.

Gold/silver ratio – Is that an inverse head & shoulders. I find these patterns somewhat unreliable, but there are some fairly clear support/resistance lines here, which may give us a very good indication where PMs are heading in the near term.

My latest thinking is that if we use moving averages and history as a guide, a correction must be getting close. A surge through $2000 would get everyones attention and create the sort of atmosphere often associated with tops and impending pullbacks. The chart below lays it out really. Longer term, do we really need to get a handle on things ? Not necessarily…

We seemed to have sliced through the turbulence zone associated with the cup target. I should’ve known better. I mentioned in an earlier post either here or on Twitter, that a retest of the $10,000 breakout would be entirely normal, so I guess that’s back in play (maybe), but none of this changes the bigger picture, which is highly likely to be up, up, up.

After this, I’ll get back to PM’s ! 3 more cryptos with huge upside. They have defined the right hemisphere of their arcs and given us price objectives and timelines…

You’ll remember my first chart on the left from a few weeks ago. We’re up over $2500 since then. RSI about to hit the zone that triggers big moves of thousands of Dollars. I’ve raised my near-term target from $15,000 to $20,000

Edit – A break above $20,000 is likely to lead to a swift move to $27,000. We may pause there, but $40,000 seems likely after that.

So the blue and red lines in the chart below are going to act as strong support

GSR looks to be done with a simple backtest of the 84 support (now resistance)…

Miners breaking out…here’s one…

  Edit: and another…

If we can close the month today, above the blue line, then both that and the red line will become strong support acting like a magnet in a future correction. This is exactly what happened in multiple breakouts around the world.

Americas Gold & Silver and Hecla at interesting points here

Usually a backtest of a very long term breakout is a great entry point. Some individual miners look very attractive around about here (even if there is some ongoing weakness in gold and silver).

This adds evidence to the correction scenario…

Either a backtest of the $10,000 breakout, or a rapid advance to over $12,000

I’m no cycles expert, but Norvast and others are calling for the decline into a daily cycle low now. The first thing we need to do is close below the inclining support line, then a close below the 10 day moving average would fit the bill. After advancing $180 in 10 days, this would be very, very welcome. In fact, a rapid drop below $1923 (or was it $1917 for spot price ?) would give us a monthly close below the previous all-time high and help with the chartology, in terms of working out where we go next (more on that after tomorrows close). Remember, many miners recently broke out of long term downtrends and it would be great to see lots of back-tests. That would be a perfect, brilliant, amazing opportunity for anyone wanting to get in and just hold for a few years, with no thought of trading dips.

Buy the ‘bad’ news – it isn’t really that bad https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/29/2069168/0/en/Cameco-reports-second-quarter-results-well-positioned-financially-with-solid-balance-sheet-supported-by-planned-restart-at-Cigar-Lake.html

The chart looks fundamentally good to me

Expect BIG swings in the price, but for the trend to be upwards over the coming weeks/months.

In the interests of giving a balanced view, this GDX chart is one reason why I felt it appropriate to take profits off the table. Now have about 25% on the side-lines.