Goldtent TA Paradise

Dollar replacement goes mainstream

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-23/unprecedented-shocking-proposal-boes-mark-carney-urges-replacing-dollar-libra

All-time high

The list of countries that haven’t made new all-time gold price highs is getting smaller by the day

I still haven’t made any changes to this chart. Just sitting and watching how it plays out…

Has Powell at the Fed just opened the trapdoor on the Gold/Silver ratio ? Watch this for a breakdown, signalling an imminent surge in Silver and the PM miners

Another one of my earlier charts updated. Again, we’ll have to see how J-Hole’ affects things later on today.

My earlier chart updated. Chinese tariffs seem to have done the trick. Let’s see if holds into the close after Fed commentary.

It’s been a bit messy as a result of the ‘Trump Dump’, but I’m going with this as a possibility for gold…

and this is how I’m seeing Silver…

One of the other half-dozen or so Uranium stocks I’m holding (just for shits and giggles)

There are very good reasons to believe that this is THE bottom. Fundamentals appear strong in this sector, with huge upside for the miners. Anyway, just looking at the immediate future, the chartology suggests a 100% move is possible in the next 3-6 months.

This sector is infamously volatile, and not for the faint-hearted but a bit like Spocks Rocks – you have to be in it to win it.

Looks like a possibility to me.

With many metrics suggesting a pause/pullback is likely, we need to remember the fact that impulsive, bullish moves can catch us out to the upside. I’ve already posted my thoughts that support the possibility of a sizeable correction. Here I’m pointing out just how close the GSR is to making a decisive drop. It’s resting right on that support, close to the apex. If it were to drop, it would likely trigger a surge in silver price and the miners could fly. The GDX shows how a reverse symmetry move up (like the one we’ve seen in gold), might be on the cards. Food for thought.

The future is often vague/uncertain (in fact, it usually is, especially the further ahead you try to look). My outlook for gold is steadily evolving around some fixed (cyclical) points.
There are a range of likely outcomes which I’ve allowed for in my chart below. The orange shaded area highlights the region I expect gold price to occupy. I’m not catering for what in my view, is a very low probability collapse in gold prices. Unless support levels are breached, there’s no need to spend too much time thinking about that. So, what do we have ?

Firstly, we can see how we expect the various long term indicators to behave. I’ve highlighted the Stocharstic indicator here. There are 3 clear stages visible: Stage 1 – Rise from below 20, to above 60, Stage 2 – Stay above 60 (with the exception of a likely mid cycle breakdown in 2024), Stage 3 – Fall back below 60 and eventually below 20.

Next, we can see how these 3 stages tie in with golds cyclical behaviour, and I’ve labelled the chart below with the cyclical lows every 8 years. The unknown bit is whether the cycle is going to turn out to be left, or right translated. In a bull market, the cycles should be biased to the upside, which requires right translated cycles (large portion of the cycle trending upwards, with a short correction at the end of the cycle (like 2008).

By my reckoning, as we move towards $1800, and the top of my red rectangle, we should be transitioning from stage 1 on the Stocharstic indicator to stage 2. This will sustain a strong uptrend for the next 2 or 3 years. I’ll be getting very, very cautious in 2022 and probably closing out all of my positions in the PM sector. It’s interesting to see that the top of my red triangle (approx. $1800) intersects the line drawn using the ‘arc’ tool in the charting software in the year 2024 !! Coincidence ? It would make perfect sense to have a hard backtest of the $1800 breakout area, before the final stage of the PM bull takes off and leads us into a parabolic top in the late 2020’s. I will be back in to mining positions for that of course 🙂

Unfortunately, I can’t see Rambus posts, but I love the way the HUI looks at the moment. The big question for me is can we squeeze another week or two out of this rally, or do we pullback as shown in the chart below ? Either way, it looks clear to me that 280 is written all over this, in the not too distant future, with a very significant move up after that.

The way we interpret what the various chart indicators are telling us, is subtly different, depending on whether we are in a bull market or bear market. In a bear market, an overstretched or overbought indicator serves as a likely prelude to a decline to new lows. Not so in a bull market.

So how are we looking today ?

You can argue about exactly where to place the cycle lows/highs, but you get the general idea from the next chart. It explains the backdrop to my overall, broadscale thinking. There are small, shorter cycles embedded within these ones, but they don’t form part of my personal game plan for the next 10 years or so. I plan to exit and re-enter all of my mining positions just once. I’ll be telling you when in due course. First I want to see how price behaves in the $1600-$1800 region in the next 18 months or so.

My targets were about 3% above these levels, but either way, we’re just about at another important decision point for gold.

Things seem to be back on track after yesterdays ‘Trump Dump’. Each time I look at a chart, I get $1560-$1625 as the conclusion for this move. Fibonacci numbers seem to fit this pretty well too.
My tactic is to just hold on tight and weather the inevitable large pullbacks and extended sideways moves that will come. Why ? The 8/16 year cycles are really the only ones I care about, and in the current global financial situation, shocks are more likely to be to the upside. I find it more plausible that we just surge on to $1800, rather than drop back below $1300. Cautious traders who got in when I posted the falling wedge breakout, should be sitting on some very good profits, and may want to think about locking some of those profits in as we close in on $1600. We could bounce about between $1600 and $1800 for quite a long time. A break above $1800 would signal the final assault on the old highs.

Came across a chart from a post a couple of years ago…

So far, so good, but it gets trickier from here.

Yes, but not to an extent that worries me. In order to have a bull market, price needs to be above the moving averages – that’s just how the maths works. We can look back at the last long bull run to see what might be reasonable to expect. Price moving 20-25% above the supporting moving average is entirely normal, in fact price is usually at least 10% above the moving average.

So this is what we might be looking at…

Looks like we just hit a nerve. Only time will tell just how key that level was…

Linear and log charts, with a few initial thoughts.

The US Dollar is just lagging a little, but FIAT currencies all seem to be jostling for position as they swirl around the toilet bowl…

It’s been a long road since the bottom in 2015/16. Within a year or so of that low, it became apparent that the 8/16 year gold cycle had done its work and we could look forward to rising prices. What looked like some kind of wedge morphed into a rounded bottom basing pattern (golden bowl as I call it). Few believed that reverse symmetry would take us straight back up as quickly as we’d come down, but here we are, just a few dollars from touching the ‘red zone’ in my chart below. Job done. Bulls vindicated. Bears proven wrong.

That’s the easy bit though. The more important, and in my mind, harder, part is what happens next. do we touch the red zone and turn back down ? Do we surge up to the $1800 area by the end of the year, then consolidate ? (my preferred scenario), or do we just keep on flying (very unlikely in my opinion). This is where I’m going to be focussing my efforts now (in an effort to take profits before jumping back in later on).

Meanwhile, no fanfare, no fuss, another nation sees gold breaking to new all-time highs…