Loading ...Cautious Traders – Profit Taking
Things seem to be back on track after yesterdays ‘Trump Dump’. Each time I look at a chart, I get $1560-$1625 as the conclusion for this move. Fibonacci numbers seem to fit this pretty well too.
My tactic is to just hold on tight and weather the inevitable large pullbacks and extended sideways moves that will come. Why ? The 8/16 year cycles are really the only ones I care about, and in the current global financial situation, shocks are more likely to be to the upside. I find it more plausible that we just surge on to $1800, rather than drop back below $1300. Cautious traders who got in when I posted the falling wedge breakout, should be sitting on some very good profits, and may want to think about locking some of those profits in as we close in on $1600. We could bounce about between $1600 and $1800 for quite a long time. A break above $1800 would signal the final assault on the old highs.
The PM Market is waiting for a Gold correction THAT MAY NOT COME…
That’s a possibility Atomic.
I am with you NorthStar
NO 3X leverage Kamikazi Stocks for me this time.
Just hold the quality PM Miners and Royalties through the ups and downs
Micro timing is impossible.
You may get lucky once and think you’re a genius…and that is dangerous
🙂
I’ve learned it’s best not to try to be too clever Fully. Been there, done that, lol 😉
Much appreciated update.
Thanks Marcus.
In this environment, it is best to stay the course, IMHO. How would a trader handle yesterday and today? With losses, I believe.
That’s my view as well North. Some may wish to cash in some profits soon though.
I would like to address, obliquely, both FGC’s comments above and Alex33’s in the posting below (Junior Liberty…). At times owning *certain* explorer/developers can be more conservative than indexes or big producers in a way. The problems include that you have to find the right ones, you have to have patience, and that you generally need to have a bunch of them.
One thing that is often not mentioned about many companies–the big companies as well as the penny stocks–is the quality of the investors. True, people fairly often will mention the problem of insider-investors who may pump/dump. What usually doesn’t get mentioned much is that all too many companies are owned by weak-hand non-insider shareholder who will sell if the wind shifts. If things look bad, all the generalist mutual funds and the like will turn on the big PM companies just about as fast as the naive speculators can all at once turn on a penny stock that a subscription service or two have told them they just had to own or they were going to get badly left behind. If you can figure out some good explorer-developers with good sensible and patient shareholders, and you don’t need to cash out instantly, you actually may have some relative safety in some situations compared to something transiently loved in fad-fashion by some money center money managers.
“Otto” of IKN can be obnoxiously rude to the naive in his blog. He is politer in his newsletter, where he has indicated that he much prefers having a small number of relatively sophisticated subscribers than having many subscribers. And even then sometimes he chides them (us), telling them that he himself frequently waits until after they push up prices after his recommendations since the prices almost always come back down. But he is one of the few people who (indirectly) point out that ideally one of the things you look to invest in is the quality of the shareholder. The seniors typically have some poor shareholders–namely institutions that may naively follow each other. These low-quality shareholders increase the risk of owning these companies.
In any case, low profile stocks can — all things being equal — be less volatile than high profile stocks, even though in many cases they’re not as liquid. In my amateur opinion.