Goldtent TA Paradise

Long suffering uranium investors will be hoping so. Here’s a chart for one I’m following, Energy Fuels.

I’m sticking with it folks…

If this plays out, downside may be another 5% or so for HUI, and 4% for GDX. Let’s see if the bullish, descending wedges do their thing…

Edit – GDX added

As I’ve previously suggested, there are a couple of scenarios here. A drop below the $1480 area would put this one into play. Looking at the behaviour of the Stochastic indicator on longer timeframes, it would be normal to see the reading which is still in the 80’s, fall to somewhere in the 60’s, just as it did during most major consolidations in the last big bull run, shown on the chart below. That would set us up for $1400, maybe even a little lower, before we resume our march upwards towards the old highs.

My Yen chart from yesterday, lines up quite well with this idea, because it looks like it wants to pullback for another month or two.

Given its close correlation with gold. this looks pretty good to me…

Short term weakness. Long term kaboom 🙂

US Dollar seems to be conforming to a pattern of equal wavelength decreasing amplitude. We need more conformation from a breakdown and another complete cycle.

I agree the jury is out until we get at least one more complete, successful cycle, but those perfect hits on the edges of the last 2 arcs are very striking and must mean the arcs themselves are valid.

What’s going on with the Stocharstic indicator ? Is this giving us the earliest clue that something is afoot ? The plot thickens…

A couple of charts side by side. On the left, one that I posted a few days ago. On the right, the latest update, showing what’s happened since.

So the big question is, what’s next for King Dollar ? Recovery, and upwards past 100, or steady decline, failed cycles and on to 90, 80, 70 …?

Very close to a very important move, which will tell us an awful lot about what lies ahead. Like the Bloomberg Commodity Index, we are approaching the decision point fast.

I think the chart says it all

COT data – no reason to worry. Gold may continue to pullback for a few days, a few weeks or even a few months, but COT data during the last major gold bull shows that our current position cannot be used to infer a big drop in the price of gold.

Dollar Index – it’s effect on Gold in perspective. The Dollar Index fluctuates up and down over the years, but gold just keeps trending from bottom left to top right. FIAT currencies all become worthless eventually, which implies this trend can only accelerate.

The downside for gold miners looks very small compared to the upside. A very important breakout is tantalisingly close. Once we reach the sort of target area I’ve indicated here, I plan to exit ALL PM miner positions until the bottom is confirmed and we resume upwards into the late 2020’s.

Due to it’s strong correlation to gold price, this is another piece of the jigsaw puzzle which has kept me bullish on precious metal since the bottom in early 2016.

I know it feels like it’s been a long time coming, but with a bullish MACD cross back above zero, the odds have increased significantly…

I still don’t see anything to alter my view…

As the dollar continues to breakdown it will probably start to add some fire to gold (and silvers) next leg up.

A very odd looking chart…

A couple of possibilities I’m watching…

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-live-powell-addresses-room-full-economists-october-rate-cut-odds-soar

A break below 83 and it really is game on, with a possible/probable strong move to the upside for PMs

We need a close somewhere between $1515 and $1520…

Edit – Apologies, I’ve done it again ! I put my Fib levels upside down. If I’d done it right, it would show retracement to the 0.236 level. Ho hum.

The unstoppable process continues

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russias-largest-oil-company-ditches-dollar-new-oil-deals

Just the chart (used in a post on Twitter)

It’s just a matter of time in my view. Downside to somewhere near $16, upside ? well, let’s just say much more than 1 or 2 Dollars…

And when silver makes its move, the miners will (in my view) make some people very rich. Here are a couple of charts I’ll be watching (amongst many others)…

Despite my thoughts, that a much larger, longer pullback is quite likely, bull markets can deliver some sudden upside surprises, so lets watch this carefully…

Some of you m ay have been wondering how my ‘do(o)med’ Dollar chart is looking. Well, nothing decisive yet. I wonder how a Brexit resolution might affect the Euro, and therefore the Dollar index…