Loading ...This was recommended by a subscription service several years ago. it bombed. Trading was halted. It’s not been re-listed or traded since last year. Just wondering if anyone has any info on the company. Is trading likely to be ‘re-started’ again at any point, or is it gone for good ? Can’t seem to find a definitive answer online. What’s left is sitting in an old trading account which I’d like to close down, but I can’t sell it at the moment.
I’d be expecting a little more upside, then a pause/pullback before the next major advance to $50+
Been doing a bit of charting. Enjoy 🙂
 
I’ve posted about my thoughts that gold is now on the march towards $2000, but I do need to acknowledge the bearish rising wedge. I’ll be watching price reaction at the upper resistance line very carefully.
The views expressed below are my own, and I’m not speaking in any official capacity.
Many of you know I’m a meteorologist. What you may not know is that my particular job role is ‘Civil Contingency Advisor’. What that means is that for my region of England, I’m responsible for engaging with what we call ‘Local Resilience Forums’ to communicate effectively, the risks associated with severe weather which is expected to impact in the coming days/weeks.
The Local Resilience Forums are made up of all responding organisations at a local government level (Fire, Police, Health, Military, Environment Agency, Meteorological Office, Mountain Rescue, Utility Companies, Voluntary Organisations). It’s a mixture of government bodies, charities and private sector organisations. The purpose ? To prepare/plan/exercise for all scenarios on the National Risk Register and fulfil obligations under the Civil Contingencies Act. In other words, to make sure that in a disaster/emergency, all of the people who have to respond have prepared for it, and are able to respond effectively – talking to each other in an open and responsible way. We need to know each others abilities, what we can all do to help in such a response.
Pandemic Flu has long been number 1 on the UK’s National Risk Register.
First things first. The UK has a population somewhere in the region of 66-67 million. London is a mega-city with a population of around 10 million. Our flu season typically runs from Autumn to Spring (ending in March), and results in an average 17,000 fatalities.
Our flu season had all but ended as Covid-19 arrived. Our annual loss due to flu was pretty much over. Anyone with flu-like symptoms from that point onwards was, more than likely, suffering from Coronavirus.
Our ‘official’ death toll due to Covid-19 is close to 35,000. Our excess deaths (difference from the average) is at least 50,000 (during the 2-3 months since the virus arrived). It appears from early statistics that around 10% of the population may have been exposed to the virus, leaving 90% vulnerable. Like everywhere else, the deaths are highly concentrated amongst the over 70’s, and those with pre-existing health conditions. Despite that, we’ve lost dozens, possibly hundreds of apparently fit and healthy frontline workers/doctors/nurses/medical staff/bus drivers, as well as children and babies. I’ve lost 2 relatives and know many who got very, very ill, and are now experiencing health problems. There are so many tragic stories…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52545623
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-covid-19-queens-hospital-18083886
https://www.today.com/health/son-speaks-out-after-parents-die-coronavirus-6-minutes-apart-t177410
https://news.sky.com/story/pictured-some-of-those-who-have-died-in-uk-after-contracting-coronavirus-11963683 – Look at the faces – they are not all old
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-healthy-boy-13-is-youngest-uk-victim-11966526 – Young people also dying
Anyway, these are just a tiny fraction of those 50,000 sad stories. The point is this – what choice did our government have ? We were told by the modellers that if we locked down quickly a death toll of 20,000 would be a good outcome. In other words, the only way to keep the number of deaths similar to a flu season (bearing in mind that we had just come out of flu season) would be to lock down immediately and prevent transmission. At that point, everyone who had the illness was passing it onto 3 others. The ‘r’ rate was 3. That meant that if we had 100,000 infected, that would become 400,000 (The original 100,000 plus another 300,000), then 1.6 million (400,000 plus another 1.2 million), then 4.8 million… you get the idea. That’s just simple mathematics and how virus spread works. We needed to get the reproduction rate (the ‘r’ number) below 1, and fast. The virus was already present across the entire country.
As it turned out, we couldn’t manage to achieve the better outcome of 20,000 dead, but we did slow it down enough to prevent the hospital system from becoming overwhelmed and collapsing. The death toll is likely past 50,000, but the ‘r’ number is below 1, meaning the case numbers are going down, not up. Here’s a graph (2 weeks old now) which gives an idea of where we were at with Covid-19 deaths in the UK…
Addressing the ‘conspiracy theory’ that all deaths are being recorded as Covid – categorically not true. If this was flu season, I’d be concerned that flu deaths and Covid deaths were getting ‘combined’ and it may be unclear whether it was a flu death or a Covid death. As it is, there is very little circulating in the UK population at the moment that would cause 50,000+ excess deaths other than Covid. In fact it’s more likely that many cases that WERE Covid didn’t get recorded as such. My wifes Uncle for example, was one of the first who died in his retirement/care home. Tests weren’t available, more died, and they weren’t recorded as Covid. They may experience 1 death on average, in an 8 week period, probably less, but 16 died ! The later casualties were tested and it was found to be an outbreak of Covid-19.
So any incorrect recordings of death by Covid-19 that weren’t, are in my view, more than balanced by Covid deaths that weren’t recorded as such. Overall, I think the ‘numbers’, whilst not perfect, are not adversely manipulated or false as some claim.
The decision to lockdown, in the face of a virus which had killed thousands very quickly in Italy and overwhelmed the health system seems to me, to have been the right one in the UK. In countries where the virus is concentrated in very specific areas/cities, a more nuanced approach may have been possible, but that is up to each jurisdiction to decide. Here in the UK, the 50,000 fatalities would easily have been 200,000-500,000 if the r rate was allowed to remain at 3. That would be totally unacceptable. It would’ve meant bodies piling up in the street, literally.
So the easy decision is behind us. I agree, the damage the lockdown is doing is enormous and it’s going to have huge consequences. Here in the UK, government has been paying 80% of workers wages, so that employers don’t need to fire them. The hard bit, is what comes next. Lockdowns are being eased, and the r number is being monitored (currently between 0.7 and 1 for much of the country). The government is tapering the payments to employees over the next few months, so at some point the decision will have to be made to either keep them on, and let them go back to work, or (if business has dried up), to fire them.
I just pray that we don’t have a repeat of the Spanish Flu (a second wave, much deadlier than the first). No vaccine is likely before the Northern Hemisphere Winter arrives, and no combination of drug therapies has been found that works for everyone – there are many claimed miraculous therapies on the internet – if they work (as claimed), we have little to worry about, so we’ll see about that. Here, our healthcare is free, so readily available, licensed drugs would be made available to everyone free of charge. If such a combination treatment exists we can rest easy.
Flu season will arrive as usual at the end of this year. If we get a resurgence of Covid-19, the threat to society will be far, far worse than anything we’ve seen in the last few months…
Gold looks like it’s ready to run past $1900
It’s been on the naughty step for long enough. Time to come out and play…
A weekly close above this flag sets up the move to approx. $2000
PM puke underway…
A very mixed picture. The miners are rolling over and dropping out of bearish rising wedges, whilst gold seems to be close to the completion of another bullish, big-picture chart pattern…
PMs and the miners are showing signs of weakness. The metals themselves are currently building bull flags.
After a month of consolidating
This is one of my long term holdings. $20 seems the obvious target in the next 12 months or less.
After recent, very impressive gains and breakouts, many of the uranium miners now need to confirm their bull market intentions. Cameco is close to a more significant (and potentially very large) move to the upside.
Looks like an important move is not too far away now
I’m out now until we have a confirmed breakout. Price heading down…
Let’s see what tomorrow brings…
I’ve managed a 50% gain in a few weeks with BTC. As suggested, we are now back at the apex (solid black line) with the halving event in a week or so. I’ve taken profits and waiting for Bitcoins next move. The chart still looks enormously bullish to me.
History doesn’t suggest anything to worry about, although a sharp ‘reset’ is likely to occur at cyclical lows (like 2008)
$200+ advance in the next few weeks, then it’ll be time to decide what’s most likely – further advances followed by a backtest of the breakout, or correction first before we break out to new highs.
Spring is here in the Northern Hemisphere, and Summer is right around the corner. Millions of holidays/vacations have been cancelled over the last 2-3 months, including the lucrative Easter period and now the ‘half-term’ school holidays in June. Next up is the Summer season itself.
Borders remain closed. Even if they open, I don’t think we can expect very many people to be taking overseas holidays in Europe. How do you fancy a ‘socially-distanced hotel ? How do you like the idea of standing in a line 2 metres apart to get food/drink at a bar/restaurant ? Then you have to find a table that allows you to get sat down then get up again, without getting within 2 metres of anyone else. How do like the idea of sitting around a pool trying to stay 2 metres apart from everyone else, and wear a mask in 90 degree heat ? We haven’t even mentioned the difficulty of socially distancing at an airport, or in an aeroplane.
Time is running out fast to find a solution. Without one, the entire European Economy will collapse this year. Tens of millions, possibly hundreds of millions will be without work. Life after the lockdown could be a lot worse than the situation we find ourselves in now. We need to hope the virus recedes rapidly and all such restrictions can be dropped entirely. Anything less than that will deter people from spending their money on what will be a very strange holiday experience. It could be game over for pretty much the entire hospitality/travel sector.
In my view, a perfectly reasonable scenario for the coming decade…
 
 
