Gold – Back To The Highs Of 2011 – Then What ?
$200+ advance in the next few weeks, then it’ll be time to decide what’s most likely – further advances followed by a backtest of the breakout, or correction first before we break out to new highs.
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Hi NS. Love your work. Watching the goldies slowly lift…
Hi Noman. Glad you find the charts helpful 🙂
The daily cycle low for DCL #1 was likely last Friday so price is just now beginning daily cycle #2. Norvast expects a high for this new cycle around June 1st and then into DCL #2. So the high for DCH #3 will likely be late July. That high will likely be the high for the intermediate cycle ICH. This first intermediate cycle of the year is typically very right translated. Rambus has also commented that there are typically 3 consolidations before any meaningful pullback. The moral of this story is to “Be right…. sit tight” until late July.
Roger that PK.
HI PK. What is right translated?
Right Translated means that during a cycle from the low to the high….the high is made closer to the end of the cycle than the beginning
it’s a term used in Bressart cycles.
For more on this you would need a subscription to Surf City Cycles
https://surfcity.co/
Meaning that in a typical 30 day cycle if the high comes at for instance day 8 it will be known as left translated and if at day 20 it would be right translated.
Thank you PK and Fully. After 40 years of this I only began to look at cycles in the last year or so. Was not sure I wanted to go down the rabbit hole.
In case anyone was following me on my 50% short the stock market, 50% long the goldies, I sold the spxu and am now 100% the goldies.
Yes. What is preventing the US markets from falling.. is also helping gold and golds stocks. #theories
NS, if we go 200$ in next few weeks… a move that fast would really make us hit “distance from MA resistance” and signal a good swing opportunity to take some off the table. Will greed make us rationalize some crazy reason to stick around? Gonna be fun see how we emotionally react.
You read my mind Patrick. I want to get this one right, because a large pullback is quite possible, meaning we can get out, avoid the drawdown, then back in at a lower point. As PK suggests, sometime in July is looking like the sort of timeframe for a cyclical high (ICH ?). A safer bet is to just hold for the long run – I may well, hold a core position, and try to get the timing right with the rest.
Yep. I’m still undecided, which is not a good thing… as we should have a plan… or a plan will be made for us! I’m favoring reducing my total gold position 50% at 1895$.. and adding when we touch or get really close to 6 month MA, wherever it may be. I’m afraid greed is creeping up on me.
Last years rally started May 31 and ran to Sep 04 with a momentum peak in Aug. If this one is starting now mid to late July sounds right for the annual top that seems to come in late Aug early Sep… Recall my 20 year ratio chart that last produced a 4 month run before giving most of it back in five months after intermediate peak.
Seems like we’re identifying a probable point to take some profits between us. Identifying the cycle top in real time will help us nail it (I hope). The indicators and breaking support line/moving average will give additional confirmation.