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We are much closer to a major low in silver now, IMO. The 200 DMA is rising (currently at $28.97), and my expectation is that at some point in December or January price will meet that major MA. For me, that will be the point to buy.
It’s impossible to say with any certainty. But given how they love to run silver longs ragged, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a panic dump that took us below the 200 DMA for a week.
Obviously now is a much better time to buy than when silver was at $35, so if you are willing to tolerate another $2 or even $3 downside from here, now is probably a good time to start nibbling. And again, for all I know we could rally from here for a month before testing the 200 DMA at a higher level (although I do tend to think that the lowest low we make this cycle will be on that test of the 200DMA–so likely lower than $29.75).
Interesting analysis. Since I am looking for a rally to start this week and am also open to a possible eventual touch of the 200 day ma, your last sentence seems highly possible.
I would not rule out a major low being struck this week. The problem I see is the weekly bollinger bands need to tighten up (e.g. the 30 week BBs) before a major assault on $50 begins–at least that’s what conventional wisdom would say. In that sense, silver may be a bit hamstrung by gold, which may have to wait until February or March to begin another upleg.
The closer the 100 dma and the 200 dma get, the closer in time we will be to the next upleg, and they are still quite far apart yet.
Also, the end of January, specifically, the week of January 27, is a very key date IMO.
We could be in for a an absolutely wild ride until then, both up and down. Would not be a shocker to see major low struct that week or even the week of inauguration.
I started to post my reaction, which indeed, centers on that very week. Too far out for high confidence. But that’s how I see it now.
Israel cease fire now but Putin going to launch more big bombs asap in retaliation to the Nato missiles fires the last couple of days. Tit for tat heating up. Clock is ticking for Biden gang as they fear the jail sentence cometh …gold op ex Nov 26 also
https://www.rt.com/russia/608226-moscow-mod-response-strike/