You have boasted that you could stop the war in 24 hours. Well, you can’t. But you could do quite a lot in 24 days. But only if you understand two realities.

The first is that America is not as powerful as you think it is. It wasn’t as powerful as you thought it was in your first term, but its weakness is much more obvious now. 20 years in Afghanistan gave Taliban an air force. The Houthis kicked the US Navy out of the Red Sea. Niger ordered the US and NATO out. The blank check for Israel alienates the world. The dollar is losing ground. Yuge failure.

The second reality has come in the last four years. They’re not afraid of America any more. It’s not as scary, not as powerful and not as competent as they thought it was. It has dribbled away the reputation it had in 1945. Always at war, always losing. (Afghans! Houthis! Niger!) 800 bases around the world are 800 hostages. If American aircraft carriers don’t frighten the Houthis – why would they frighten China?

Ukraine exposed the fraud. American/NATO weapons are boutique weapons – expensive, fragile and produced in tiny quantities. As your new Secretary of Defense can tell you, your generals aren’t warriors – they’re bureaucrats with MBAs dreaming of becoming sales reps for the MIC. “As long as it takes” isn’t very long. Send more weapons? What’s left to send? The “game changers” are defeated. You don’t have a big stick.

What’s your carrot? Not much. The IMF tells us Russia’s economy in PPP terms is number four in the world. And that’s under a mountain of sanctions. Sure, Russia would be glad to see the sanctions ended, but it can wait – they’re doing more damage to its opponents. Another few years and Europe will be a wreck.

Your stick is fragile and your carrots are withered. You have little to offer or threaten Russia with.

But even if you had a big stick and a fresh carrot, America’s word is worthless – NATO enlargement, Minsk 1 and 2, Istanbul. Not forgetting the nurturing of Bandera, Stetsko and the others. Why would Moscow ever believe anything Washington promises? As Putin said a few years ago, US presidents come and go but nothing changes.

Helmholz Smith