Loading ...THE ONLY STORY SHOULD BE THE ELECTION
I AM SURE EACH OF YOU IS WATCHING IN YOUR OWN WAY
I AM WATCHING WITH NO SOUND…AND SOME QUIET MUSIC IN THE BACKGROUND
WATCHING A FEW OF MY SITES ON X …NO TAKING HEADS
LIKE NBC DECISION AND POLY MARKET AND A HANDFUL OF GREAT INDEPENDENT ANALYSTS ON X
POLY MARKET ODDS ARE RISING FAST 72-28 TRUMP
TRUMP WON FLORIDA BY 14 ( IN 2020 HE WON IT BY 3)
ALL THE SITES ARE DISCOUNTING TRUMP TO WIN GA AND NC AND ASZ AND NOW LIKELY NV ( WHICH HE NEVER WON)
SO IF HE WINS ONE OF THE W RUST BELT STATES HE WINS !
CHRISTIAN HEIEMS ( A SOLID NO NONSENSE PUNDIT SPECIALIZING IN ANALYZING THE DEEP UNDERLYING DATA ) JUST NOW
Regards of whether Trump is winning or losing in any particular locale, what I’m getting from the numbers I’ve been seeing is that generally he’s doing about 10 pts better than 2020 most everywhere. Most results remain incomplete, but these 2020 to 2024 comparisons on a county by county level where most votes are in should stand up overall in terms of guidance.
BUT … we saw the same thing in 2020 into the wee hours. I remember Trump having a lead in VA with 90% of the vote counted. Then every vote after that went for Biden. Mail in dumps that skewed 99-1.
I’m listening to Barris on Locals. Granular coverage, and very interesting. Trump looks real good, yet Barris is waiting for the rust belt states to offer more data before getting optimistic. I voted that we will get results tonight, and I’m sticking to it.
Wisconsin is huge, according to Barris.
Wisconsin called for Harris as is Michigan
not good
WHERE ARE YOU GETTING THIS KESTREL ?
IRRESPONSIBLE CALL TO SAY THE LEAST
from PBS Fully ‘projected’
Baris IS incredibly “granular”
I see he has Mark from Rassmussen on now
They are being cautious re the rust belt which is good
But Christian Heiens on X ( who specializes in the nuances of Penn) just posted this
https://x.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1853985649566867732
Hispanic shift to Trump is far more important than the black vote. I don’t think blacks are coming out for Trump in the numbers we have been led to believe. I’m not surprised. The numbers are better, but we get this thinking every election. It’s mostly bs.
Barris is very proud of his polling this go ’round. Good on him. State by state he’s been right on!
Gotta say, I was a bit pissed at Barris in 2020. I shouldn’t have been. How do you poll for cheating?
Trump is a whisper away!
I wonder if young people will be the most important swingers for Trump. That would make Tenters very proud!
Kamala is a phoney, and vicious piece of business. Take heart, Tenters, she already knows she lost. Imagine this cock sucking bitch, thought she was going to be the President of the USA. I should probably wait, but congratulations to the great American people!
Subject to the cheat, of course!
Shes bottom of the barrel in every way.
It will be something else watching her have a shit fit….I dont believe she can concede…….her husband & her entourage
will just have to vacate.. compare her to Hillary..
Wisconsin is looking good.
So as Pennsylvania.
Actually Baris was Right on in 2020
he has a miss ( not a lot) in the 2022 MIDTERMS…NO RED WAVE
I will never believe Clueless Joe was even close.. Like I said, you can’t poll for cheating.
I just looked at the %’s for each state so far. Holy f**k, I lived in the Bluest state and survived. Must have been the 95% shot rate.
Ya but 90% of our former “friends” there hate us now and won’t speak to us anymore
West Coast morons shaking up the models. Ignore.
I need an MSN reality tour. Someone clue me in to at the histrionics of the left!
Eleven point margin in Florida! Anyone remember when Florida was a toss up?
ACTUALLY IT WAS 3 POINTS IN 2020 AND 14 NOW
TEXAS 14 POINTS
NEW JERSEY ONLY 6 POINTS
HE WILL LIKELY WIN THE POPULAR VOTE TO PUT AN EXCLAMATION POINT ON IT
he may very well win it.
The popular vote is a death knell to the fascist’s anti democratic claims.