MY THOUGHTS ON THE ELECTION
Someone emailed me and asked why I wasn’t posting polls and such lately.
Which gave me a chance to collect my thoughts and information. I’m basically following dozens of analysts all day every day …yes it’s an obsession …but so be it
here is my response
……………
Here’s the deal
You Need 270 Electoral College Votes to win
There are 7 Swing states
4 are Sunbelt States
North Carolina , Georgia , Arizona and Nevada
These states are all IMO a Lock for Trump…based on strong polls and strong early voting and vote by mail stats .
When you total their electoral college votes and add them to the Sure Red States…you get 268 Electoral College Votes
SO Trump Needs One of the 3 Rust Belt States
Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin
How is he doing there ?
It is a little more foggy because they dont release as much data for the early voting as the Sunbelt states
The Polling is closer in all 3 as well but until a couple days ago Pennsylvania was looking strong ( it still is but i’ll get to that in a moment )
Michigan is very close to even
Wisconsin is looking close too but it it very hard to poll and always looks worse in polls for Trump than it turns out because a lot ot trump only voters in rural areas don’t answer polls ( hello PK 🙂 )
Rich Baris and Robert Barnes are explaining that in the final week the goal of each party is not to convince swing voters…everyone has already made up their minds…the goal is to get your voters to turn out
The Democrats have always been better and more organized at this….traditionally they get many of their voters to vote early either in person or by mail or by drop box
The mail and drop box were the modes that could most easily be used to cheat BUT there are much fewer of these this year compared to the 2020 Covid year
This Year The Republicans are organized like never before to get out the vote …and are encouraging early voting
in the Sunbellt States where these voters can be tracked they are doing FAR better than ever….
Nevada is the one sunbelt state that voted for Clinton and then Biden but this year they have alredy had like 80% of the vote in and Republicans have a solid lead
Which is unheard of….
Nevada was the most left leaning of the 7 states so if it is so strong for Trump one would think they all are…so again Trump is very likely to win these 4 sunbelts
BUT also again he needs one more.
Lets look at Pennsylvania which as the most EC Votes of all these states
In There are about 7 Million Votes in this state
They only vote by mail( no early in person voting)
The information is public
in 2020 they had about 2.5 million early VBM ( vote by mail) ballots returned and Dems won these by over 1 million !
So they had this “Firewall” of 1 million votes booked before election day
Republicans always massively outvote Dems on Election Day but they fell short..they made up over 900 thousand votes but Dems won the state by 80 thousand
Now this year there will end up being about 2 million VBM ballots returned
Note that the votes are not actually counted at this point …they get counted on nov 5
But this tracking is of Registered Voters Dems Repubs and Independents
We are considering only the Dens vs Repubs
a small number of each will vote for the other side but it’s a wash
Independents are also close to a wash in general..half go each way
So…This year The final Firewall for the Dems will be only about 400 Thousand….Not over a Million like last time
SO if the repubs get out the vote in Penn on election day they win it easily
The good news is they have focused here and mobilzed thousands of get of the vote operatives
They reduced Dems Registration margin by 400,000 since 2020. A guy named Scott Presler has been in Penn massively regustering First time Repub Voters . he and his team are responsible for this huge shift . If they win in Penn he can actually take credit for winning this election
However NOW we come to the Gender wars
Men in general are much more likely to vote Trump than Women
So we would like to see more men voting…which is the goal of the Repubs…get them out en mass Election day
Now in these swing states they track vote by gender and Women are outvoting men by 10 points ( a lot)
Dems are seizing on this fact and so there is creeping doubt that Pennsylvania for instance will go tot Trump
This is energizing Dems and Demoralizing Repubs and that is the intent of this media blitz…reduce the energy and therefore reduce the mens vote
It’s a scam.
Baris explains women vote early every year more than men
Also there are many more republican women voting early this year AND far fewer Black men voting early ( as they are not motivated as much )
Blacks of course vote Dems on balance
All of this is to say there is a campaign now to demoralize us into thinking Harris will rebound and take all the Rust belt states and therefor get 270 EC votes ad win it all ( to Trump’s 268)
The theory is if enough Repubs get demoralized and dont vote they can pull it off
Meanwhile when they POLL the whole Country all the pollsters even the media controlled ones are in close agreement that it is close to a Tie or even Trump +1 or +2
Trump lost the National Vote count by 2 to Hillary (of course he won the EC Vote ) and by 4.5 to Biden ( and still almost won the EC vote)
So a Tie nationally or +2 should be a landslide win
ALL of the 7 swing states tend to vote to the Right of the national vote by 2 to 4 points
However this year the State Polls do not reflect this …they all show 1 point one way or the other ( ie the same as the national polls )
Baris Polls DO much better as do other Honest pollsters BUT the media and university controlled polls are showing The Rust belt states Close to tied or Harris +1
This is near impossible but thats what they are doing
To sum up Trump has a near lock on the Sunbelt states which gives him 268
There is ONE more weird possibility :
There is 1 Electoral College vote in the state of Nebraska ( its a state that gives 3 EC votes for winning the state but strangely gives 1 extra vote for winning Omaha)
Omaha is usually a Dem win…BUT it’s closer this year and 20% chance Repububs take it
If so we have a Tie
269 – 269
in a tie the 50 states each get a vote to pick the winner
There are 27 red states and 23 Blue…so Trump wins even if he loses the Rust belt
and Finally all this could be MOOT if he wins New Hampshire which some polls show is possible
In that scenario the race could be called early…if he wins the eastern time zone states of New Hampshire Georgia North Carolina and Pennsylvania..it would be all over by 9 o’clock or so
Penn Counts slow so we may have to wait for Mich which is partly in the Central time zone
So there you have it
This email helps me to consolidate my informed opinion so i’m a glad you asked.
Barring massive cheating he should win. And this time Repubs are far more vigilant and pro active of the cheat than in 2020
last note.. I follow the betting markets closely
Trump was running away with the odds there…. it was up to 67-33 until last night…now a steady Harris Bet has brought it to 57- 43 and falling
It is demoralizing to watch…but i think The Harris Campaign is spending part of their Billion $s to manipulate it = demoralize us
They pull out all the stops and dirty tricks as we know . So this needs to be Too Big to Rig !
But the reality is NOT found in the Polls or Early Voting analysis
It is found in the Fundamentals
1…In 2020 Trump was presiding over the Absolute chaos of the Beginning of the Covid Era and a devestated Economy….In 2024 The Biden Harris Administration has been exposed as Evil Stupid Incompetent and Horrible…with the 2 most important issues Inflation and the border unquestionable related to THEM
2….in 2020 The Deep State had Complete control over the Information space …In 2024 they have LOST all that control..largely due to X and Substack and Tic Tok and so many other forms of independent media..
3…In 2020 Trump was saddled with Rino’s and neocons and traitors like Bill Barr and Mike Pence and
so many more Deep State operatives…in 2024 he has a Dream Team …RFK Jr Vivek Tucker JD Elon Tulsi and more
4….in 2020 Maga was homogenous …in 2024 there is a coalition of Right wing populists and left wing populists and more Blacks and Hispanics
5…in 2020 the Electorate was more Deocrats accoring to the gold Standard Gallup Poll..in 2024 it is More Republican
6…In 2020 the RNC was run by RINOs ( Rona McDaniels ) In 2024 it is run By Trump Loyalists ( Lara Trump)
7…in 2020 Trump was still considered a foul mouthed narciccistic rogue Billionaire Elitist..in 2024 after appearing on Podcasts including Joe Rogan he has been seen as a real human being …one who has been persecuted mercilessly by his opposition to the point of taking a bullet for America
8..In spite of all the negatives in 2020 he only lost by a total of 40,000 Votes in 3 important swing states…in 2024 he has SO MUCH MORE going for him
In summary I don’t like over confidence ..
However If you want my opinion on the Outcome …I see a Strong Trump Victory …called on election day
Hang in there
best
Fully
Relax, Fully. Trump wins easily.
That’s what I said ..but it took me LONGER
🙂
Great analysis!
Next question — Assuming Trump wins the election …. does he actually get inaugurated!
THEY HAVEN’T STOPPED HIM YET …SO THE ANSWER IS PROBABLY
It might not matter, K2. MAGA is riled. Woketards beware! ” The Tree Of Liberty…”
With highest regards to our Tent Women, and those women who take their personal and family lives seriously, may I say before the vote, fuck single and suburban women, you fucking pathetic leaches!
Somehow I don’t think you’re going to reach a single member of your target audience.
I did actually LOL, thanks!