Loading ...Understanding the Yen carry trade, the recent huge moves in the Yen and the timing of the Fed policy shift announcement
I always believed that the exaggerated moves in the Yen were staged/orchestrated, first to the downside and then to the upside. These moves caught the eyes of many a banker/analyst, including some friends in India who work with the big banks in Mumbai.
The commercial traders of Japanese yen futures have been continuously net short to varying degrees for several years, even as the value of the yen has fallen. That might seem to go against the whole principle of these traders supposedly being the smart money, but the story is deeper than that. Most of the commercial traders of Japanese yen futures are big banks who are using the futures markets to hedge their deposit and lending risks, using sophisticated pairings of multiple investment instruments. So it is not so much a case of them making a pure directional bet.
My understanding: the big banks are no one else but the ones with the inside know-how of when the Fed will do what. In other words, my guess is now the big banks are short the USD.
Full article
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan082324.html
Please educate this newbie.
GL
Why are you focusing on this gobbledegook
No one understands this shit.
Keep it simple GL
sheesh
Sir Fully,
I respect”fully” disagree.
These manufactured distractions, or chart distortions, which are undoing old established correlations, and creating a new macro, is what is the foundation of the new PM bull market.
All IMHO.
[Edit]
Since I’m not cohesive in my thoughts, and also not eloquent, let me quote:
“Think many established correlations will change with what´s coming. Also think there are way too many macro parameters nowadays for much of traditional macro analysis to be consistent. Means e.g. firms using mainly algos / regression / old correlations will start to mislead clients. ”
Why do I share the above?
This “bias confirmation” explains why there is tremendous hesitation to enter PM miners even at rock bottom prices. And when the herd starts chasing the miners, they’ll already be 2-3x off their bottom, and in case of selected juniors, 5-7-10x off their bottom.
My portfolio is showing this already.
GL
Humbly,
GL