POLLS
Pollophobes do not read this post…you are forbidden..The Management
……………
The Poll Aggregate compiled at Real Clear Politics is a good gauge of what the American Electrate is thinking
In previous election cycles many Pollsters were biased 90% of them towards Dems ( example Quinnipiac) and 10% towards Repubs ( Example Rassmussen).
So Trump always outperformed his Polls
But Now there are graphs showing who the best pollsters are and who the worst are…so this is making most pollsters more honest
Note 1:
538 is a Left Leaning Polling Aggregator ….They have had a falling out with Rich baris and refuse to use his Polls ( Big Data Polls) in their accounting. Rich’s record in 2020 was on a par with the Top rated Pollster on the above chart.
Note 2 :
Rassmussen is obviouly a Red leaning Pollster. They are prolific …heavily criticized by 538 and many Leftardians as a hack…however They were near the top rated pollster in 2020…Yesterday they released a Trump +7 Poll…amidst a slew of other polls that ranged from Trump + 4 to Harris +2
This Cycle Trump has been ahead from the get go in the aggregates
He NEVER lead in the Poll Aggregate in 2016 or 2020…ever
Here is the Real Clear Politics Aggregate through time in a chart ( this outfit is truly neutral as you can see if you go to their site…they link articles from both sides )
So in summary ..there are many different Pollsters using different methodologies…some of them were so far off in past Presedential cycles that they were mocked and ridiculed and lost a lot of business…Now under scrutiny they seem to be cleaning up their act …and the result is that Trump’s numbers seem more realistic now
Real Clear Politics Aggregates all these polls from all these different pannels and systems
The final tally in 2020 actually was Biden +4.5 in the Popular Vote and he barely won ( of course by cheating in the close swing states)
In 2016 it was Clinton + 2 and she lost because they didnt think they had to cheat .
Bottom line..to be close in the Electoral College Dems need to be UP by at least 3 Points in order to have any credibility in a cheat )
So they need at least 5 more Points…and IMO ( as well as Pollsters like Baris) Trumps support is rock solid here and the only jockying… is who will actually come out and Vote
IF Trump’s team gets out the Vote …they Win..Period
So it’s up to YOU Americans to Get out the vote in your own private circles. Steve Turley and Others are all over this…Ballot Harvesting at Churches for instance…Drives to register Trump supporters who don’t usually vote…etc
Scott Presler is in Penn( the most important Swing State ) ( Literally whoever wins Penn is president )
He is registering voters at gas stations , in churches, etc and now Penn has registered may more Republicans than Dems…ongoing
No excuse..this really is Existential as we all know…all hands on deck. Get your non voting Trump friendly family members and friends registered and out to vote .
Note 3 : of course the Votes everywhere matter but more so in the Swing States
So if you are in Ga. Az. Nv. Wisc. Mich . Penn , N.C. and even Minn. and Maine and N.H. we especially need you to do some work .
Yesterday a Pollster named Redfield and Wilton came out with all the swing states polls
Trump up between 2 and 4 Points ( a little too close for comfort but solid)
Then FOX ( who have always been Underestimating Trump) came out with their Swing State Polls
All tied !
Fully Engaged