Loading ...Fireworks For The Fourth Of July
Today could end up being an extremely important reversal day for both stocks and the precious metals. At first blush, it looked like they were going to cap the early rally in gold and silver and kill the clock until all these important timeframes were over. That only delays the inevitable, until next week.
However, if the stock market rolls over and crashes after making another ATH, it is possible the metals will takeoff and signal the explosion that is likely next week. If the precious metals finish today’s week, month, quarter and half end, with the BANG I was looking for, we should see a real July 4th fireworks explosion, all of next week.
Sir CM,
My fireworks are branded SILJ 🙂
Jun-17-2024
Filled at $11.2364
Added more yesterday, even as price went up, keeping powder dry in case it falls suddenly on Friday (PCE day)
Jun-27-2024
Filled at $11.3982
Cheers,
GL
As long as the 20 day EMA for silver is sloping downwards and price remains under that MA (both of which are true for silver at present), then I think a minicrash scenario is still in play in the very near term.
If we do get the mini-crash, I expect it to be extremely scary and it should play out over just a handful of days. In that scenario, silver has risk down to $25. If it actually gets there, it will be the lowest risk entry in silver in a year and I don’t think that pivot get broken ever, at least in USD terms.
Even if we don’t get a minicrash and instead bottom and move higher, I do think that silver will eventually test its 200 day MA, perhaps 6 months from now, at which time the 200 day MA should be much higher than it is at present.
That’s all to say, I don’t think silver will run away from current price level, even if it does manage to rally to $40+ in the near term.
$40 in the near term, would meet my criteria of fireworks, given we are currently under $30.
Saying that something is “possible” in the markets isn’t saying much.
The markets can do anything, sure.
The whole idea is to assess risk and odds, and determine what’s probable.
I’m with Nautilus on the PM risks.
I cannot rule out an equities correction [we are getting closer — late July?], but if we ‘crash’ now, it will be UPWARDS from here. We’re still in a melt up regime in the larger scheme of things.
“Saying that something is “possible” in the markets isn’t saying much.” Based on your past posts, you are definitely the expert in that area.