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Dave Collum@DavidBCollum
NVDA is a $3 trillion company.
Ask yourself:
(1) are 5,000 startups with no revenues their customers?
(2) Do they source their chips from another company?
(3) Are they vendor financing using companies that don’t even need chips?
(4) Will their 80% profit margins hold up?
(5) Is >40x revenues and 100x Levered Free Cash Flow seem like a fair price?
(6) Have I paraphrased @JG_Nuke’s analysis accurately?
I highly recommend ‘Nobody Special Finance’ (Mellonhead’s) analysis on youtube of NVIDIA starting about 9 months back (series of 5-6 vids).
My guess would be that this company is the DESIGNATED canary in the coal mine and it’s demise will be foretold when the “authorities” announce an investigation is warranted. The ultimate pump and dump!
Sirs Pedro and YYZ,
I’ve regretted not having bought NVDA.
To your point #, I’ve always sought the truth about their “customer” CoreWeave and their products … e.g. https://www.coreweave.com/products/hgx-h100
The insane share price surge and the resulting market cap are partially a result of this trading below …
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/06/nvidia-hit-a-3-trillion-market-cap-last-week-dark-pools-are-making-over-300000-trades-in-the-stock-weekly/
Let’s see how this unfolds.
GL
GL, I’m assuming you only have ‘regrets’ as they pertain to your GAMBLER instinct – which I don’t believe you have much of – you’re joking right? How long would you have stayed on the bronco before you took your gains (200 or 300% ago?). What evidence would have foretold you still being in the stock? Just another feature of living in clownworld, I’ll pass.
Sir YYZ,
Much appreciate your reply.
No, I’m not joking.
Case in point:
Cost invested in AAPL makes up about 3.4% of my total stock portfolio (cost basis).
Bought only twice in my lifetime, at 142 (Jan 2021) and then again at 122 (Feb 2021)
Today my entire AAPL position is up 60%.
Can you imagine how many times I was ready to take profits in AAPL, any time it reached the 190 region?
And now we have AAPL suddenly surging to above 220 this week, after languishing between 190 and 160 for years. Still haven’t sold any of my 180 shares of AAPL.
That’s where the regret of not buying some NVDA exists. Not in size, though.
There’s something about the blow off top in Nasdaq which may still happen.
Let’s see.
GL