Loading ...HL:$SILVER
I think $100 to $150 is a reasonable target for silver over the next 2.5-4 years. (Silver would have to hit a little over $140 to match its inflation adjusted high from the 1970s. Also, if you believe there is a 40 year cup and handle, the projected target is about $100 if it breaks out.)
Now check out the long term HL:$silver chart below. A ratio of 1.4:1 would not be an unreasonable target IMO. You can do the math on what HL would be if silver hits $150. Obviously if the ratio got back to the 1993 peak of around 3:1, well that would be freaking amazing.
Also note on this long term chart that the 200 WMA is finally above the flat 600 WMA. That is hugely significant. This chart is primed to move higher for years.
PSLV is trading at a discount of 3.95% to it’s NAV.
It’s allocated by not in one’s possession. A friend asked whether I would buy silver bars or PSLV. My answer was it was a discounted method of buying Silver if one believes that Silver will rise from here and you do not believe it will be confiscated. The Great Taking is always in the back of my mind.
I believe some physical in hand helps to sleep at night.
Is the above a rational explanation?
(the discussion was not about the miners which will be leveraged)
Maybe, but hasn’t this always been the case throughout history? Why is that the last 30 years is any different than the prior 100? I ask that rhetorically.
I mean it’s possible this ratio continues to drop for all I know. I’m being a a contrarian’s contrarian in betting on the miners over the metal over the next 2+ years. I am not saying I won’t at some point sell the miners, but they are undervalued on a historical basis.