Loading ...About that “trivial” rate cut
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html
First strike.
Next a bad jobs report.
Second strike.
But FOMC is meeting before the unemployment report next Friday May 3rd.
I know I have a fair chance of being ridiculed, as I see the rate cuts happening despite the inflation.
Sir Fully, loose monetary policy got us here, but as the election nears the Fed is holding the Trump card, pun intended (to make Biden win and Trump lose)?
Respectfully.
GL
Why do you assume the FED want’s Biden to Win ?
The FED is owned by the Big banks
Jamie Dimon thinks Trump is better than Biden. He has said as much
They just anounced 1st Q GDP…1.6% ( BAD)
BUT Inflation indicator the FED follows is UP 3.7% ( BAD)
Stagflation
Sir Fully,
When it comes to the Fed, I expect the unexpected.
If Fed sounds hawkish, yields will spike, and stock market will tank. That will be two more BADs.
How about some exogenous event before Monday to spice up things?
I know you’re trying to sound logical.
But I’m not.
GL
The FED will have the jobs report at their meeting. If they and Sleepy Joe want a cut, the BLS might actually give us the true numbers for the first time in almost 4 years?
IF the BLS gives a true report…Biden’s Polls with tank even more….no can do…Hobson’s Choice
This website shows the statistical odds for a rate cut. It uses the same logic that betting sites on the internet use – it looks at the way people are betting with their money. I have followed this site for about 5 years now and have not seen the Fed move against the odds yet, but there is always a first time.
I will say that the economic leading indicator has taken a nose dive in 2022 and 23, but it had turned up significantly in the last few quarters.
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
Forgot the CME website link
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html