Loading ...Over-extended silver?
Greetings, The Tenters!
Since I follow (and put my money on) a lot more analysts beyond just The Tent, I have to ask today: Silver just touched 26.94 if not higher.
How much is it extended above the simple 200 day MA? The 200 day EMA? The 300 day EMA? Or are we looking at even longer term xx or xxx weeks SMAs or EMAs now?
In other words, some event/news is more or less likely to mark the end of the ongoing daily cycle, at the end of which we will find that silver takes a breather and correct 5-10% if not more. Note that this correction has no meaning for a physical stacker.
Once this daily cycle ends, a small correction ensues, a second daily cycle may take silver to beyond USD 30, to 35, when the intermediate cycle may top as well?
As always, the game is in the leverage plays i.e. mining shares.
For the record I took more profits in HMY selling 5% of my remaining position at 8.425 yesterday.
And I’d like to use this post to once again thank Sir Fully, for putting out a poll for how many rate cuts this year? Who knows? Maybe I’ll never be able to express my gratitude again if the internet goes down? LOL.
And I still take the stand: the yields market will force Powell’s hand.
Can “they” paint a destructive (for the broader stock market) unemployment report this Friday? Will Biden admit that the shit is hitting the fan? There is no doubt that it is.
As I read somewhere: “Politicians never admit a mistake, they always double down on failed policies, and societies never reverse course once they start down the path to self destruction.”
Powell’s glaring bluff is unraveling as yields ratchet up again. To make hay while the sun shines, I opened another CD for a hefty sum, yielding 5.10% for 10 months. Someone once told me to not chase an over-extended market.
Oh, and by the way, a high yield savings account with a reputed bank suddenly decided to lower my yield from 4.50 to 4.40% after I had moved more funds to them, because they upped it from 4.35 to 4.50%. Diversification. Not just in PM juniors. I can’t let the banks win, can I?
Meanwhile in California, Gov Nuisance’s move of $20 minimum hourly wage is the final nail in the coffin on fast food places’ top-line. Not bottom line. Sorry fast food. You’re my first love. Not my love currently. Keeps me healthier too, and helps me earn rather than waste money!
GL
GSR is still around 85 (not extreme but still high) – unless gold were to fall dramatically (I’d give it a 3% retrace), silver has a LOT of catching up to do. Since I consider AG and to a greater extent Miners, derivatives of gold – GDX target is $35.75-36 by the third week of this month). I’m holding – gold at ATH’s is getting a lot of attention outside our bubble.
Sir YYZ,
Gold’s strength will not diminish.
Here’s where I see silver: As more people buy SLV, the sell stops, which are always known to the bankers, can be simulated. There I go on the manipulation theory again, for it is the truth!
Having missed out on First Majestic’s huuuuge move from under 4.2 to I finally entered AG (the ticker) once I saw the tiniest correction from 5.66 to 5.24 was going to end very quickly, on 3/21/24 at 5.56, knowing that I was chasing (which I very rarely do). This is how much BELIEF I have in silver miners. And AG is a major. Imagine how strong are the hands that have accumulated the juniors (have over 15-20 of them, two of them more than quadrupled over the past few months !!!)
Thanks for sharing your metrics – understood, sell stops are building to a crescendo and they will pull the plug on any sensed weakness in gold. They hammer it, silver to 24-25, GSR to 90 (gold around 2200) my cue to buy more phys AG – the next run up in AG, GSR will head down to 80.
Shortly I will post a GOLD, 30yrBond 30 min chart compare – I think gold is sensing the bond market is unraveling.
Hey GL, my intuition is telling me this silver move is the real deal and just a matter of time before the Au/Ag begins to fall. I was trying to play the scalp game with MAG last Thursday and I sold over two dollars too early without any pullback to buy back my shares. It was only a small portion of my position. Oh well.
Yes Sir JSK,
Finally we have a good problem at hand. Small gains always help in hindsight. Hypothetically, if I can cover the rent with 4-6 trades, should I be complaining about it even if I sold too early? Beware of greed … lol
Regardless, I’m lowering my sell goals from 5% at 80% gains to 2.5% at 85% gains. The problem: many of the oldest buys are still sitting at 45-80% losses, depending upon the junior! Now, what helps me here is having over 80 juniors, across gold and silver!
Will keep sharing my experiences.
I’ve just embarked on the 17th year of this wonderful journey, which I started as a 32 year old. This year is sans Jim Sinclair, my Guru. Deepest condolences.
I have great fear for Sir Ron Rosen as we have not heard from him.
The health of another great, Jeff Kern, is not looking great either.
So many great teachers made it worth the wait. Thank you Tent!
GL
Who knows. Of course it is technically overbought now, but that is meaningless. Overbought can stay overbought.
That being said, if this is a rip-roaring bull, I am expecting at least 2-3 huge pull backs over the next 2 years. Take a look at what TSLA did from 2019-23. By no means am I saying silver is going up 100x, but it’s an example of an extreme move over a short period of time.
Sir Nautilus,
What did cocoa do recently?
Did it need as long a timeframe as TSLA for its parabolic move?
Commodities inherently move differently than tech shares etc.
When it comes to cocoa, or lithium for that matter, they were “traded”.
Silver, being a monetary commodity, is going to be bought at 30% plus premiums and I’m sure (or at least I hope) not for a quick trade. The inflation monster is roaring everywhere and those who lived through the 70s are going to be another catalyst in making the shelves empty soon. I chuckle when I think about my techie Silicon Valley Magnificent-7 holders buying gold at Costco (they must be looking over their shoulders that nobody catches them “in the act”, but I know full well that they do exist!)
Seems TA for PMs might get put on a backburner for a few weeks?
GL
Absolutely nothing would surprise me at this point. I would love to see silver up 5x or more in less than 2 years.
Given that gold went from 2200 to 2300 in 7-8-9 trading days, silver’s 5x move should be in months, rather than 2 years. $80 silver before the election? The implications? Wall Streeters mass unemployed?
Gold will never be sold by Central Banks at least for the next decade.
Poland, Singapore and some other measly nation states were just following China.
Wait till China’s new, updated holdings announcement comes.
From your naive 48-year-old conclusion-jumper.
This is the real deal GL. This is the silver breakout everyone has been waiting for. I will try to get a chart up today showing why. But this is the breakout to buy. Silver has legs and its moving right now. My opinion of course. Let my chart speak for itself.
Sir Farmer,
I have no doubt that this is the real deal.
I also just noticed the sharp fall in the DXY today.
Last I checked, most were bullish on the DXY, that DXY should rise with US interest rates rising.
Not seeking any correlation here, but could it be that the DXY plunges this month? Adding fuel to the PMs fire …
GL
Each does it differently. I suck at trading. I like to just sit on positions.
> For the record I took more profits in HMY selling 5% of my remaining position at 8.425 yesterday.
I bought few positions on Friday, March 1st. I posted some of my buys here. I expected at that time that miners will go even lower and I only bought a fraction, planning to add at lower prices.
Well, that didn’t happen. One more day like today and my small positions will double up. There will be corrections. But I will not try to get cute. Whenever I did in the past, I regretted. Every single time.
I have uranium positions, I plan to hold them for a few years. (when supply/demand balances out)
I have offshore drilling positions. Same plan, to hold a few years.
I have some PM’s. Same plan. To sit and hold for a few years.
With sitting and doing nothing, gives me more time for other stuff 😉
less stressful also, since I know there will be corrections on the way up and I can care less about them as well…
Sir Buck,
My trading is just to ensure my gain/loss record is mostly green, and never empty, for any given month.
One thing that saved me, is having zero cash in the trading account OVER THE LAST 7-8 MONTHS!
Call it stupid? Yes I have cash in the bank, but none whatsoever in my trading account. Not then, not today.
Taught me a very important lesson: if my arena is juniors, there’s no time to be on the sidelines!
Whenever I saw a buying opportunity, I either sold a profitable position, even under 5-10%, to buy ridiculously oversold juniors, or moved sums of 1-2-3k dollars to buy at limit, many times raising the bids in minutes after the first bid.
The GoldVentures guy once counted all his juniors holdings, and it was over 50 million shares. May be it is 100 million or 150 million. Who knows? (I’ll ask him for an updated count) But I got his point.
I said: if I’m that sure of the eventuality of this rise, then why not keep accumulating?
I’m not playing for doubles or triples here.
Having tasted blood in one of the worst of the times (last three quarters of 2023, when everything non-PM was just flying), BADEF’s 7x move gave me a huge confidence boost. Still, I scaled it down to a cost-free position, my ultimate dream.
I’m ok to take more stress and not sit throughout the next 6-7 months, for if I play this right, I could retire soon.
GL