I had written a piece that I haven’t yet posted, about gold & especially silver and the limitations of technical analysis in discerning price targets. For now, and recent past history, one can use charts, technical indicators and sentiment like with any other stock and or commodity or index, but disappointments and adjustments are necessary because of manipulation using non existent, paper silver.

As I have stated in the past, gold can be and often is capped and driven lower for short intervals but eventually reflects true value over time. Silver is a different story.

While we expect a breakout above $26 and moves, first towards $30 and eventually to $50, we will only see silver’s price reflect it’s true value, when the paper fraud ends.

If someone had the ability to determine how much actual paper silver exists in futures contracts and other derivatives being held by banks, futures traders, warehouses and ETF’s, one could then determine what the price of silver is likely to be.

For example, if it could be determined that actual physical silver in the world represents say 50% of what is claimed by holders and the other 50% is paper, one could presume that if the “rig” were to end, silver would double. Most believe the amount of paper vs. actual physical silver is more like 80- 90 or more to one.

So, unlike the recent ridiculous gold to silver ratio of 90-1, the paper fake silver to actual physical silver ratio might be 90-1. If that were the case, then eventually silver could reach $2250/oz. I am not saying that is where it is going or if that ratio is accurate. I am just putting into context how one might think about where silver will be priced when the manipulation ends.

If one doesn’t believe it will ever end, then one should buy gold and forget about silver. If you believe that the 50+ years of manipulation and rigging is about to end soon, don’t even think about selling your physical until enough time has passed to reflect true price discovery.

You can trade your miners and any ETF’s and other silver related derivatives before they possibly become worthless, but hold on tight to your physical.