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“House prices adjusted for inflation since 1975.
The charts for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK look like a s**tcoin during a pump.
The Japanese real estate bubble of the 1990s is barely visible as a comparison.
Looks very sustainable…” @MacroAlf
Realtors in the area recognize that the peak was in Feb 2022 (Q1 2022). Since then if a property sells it has dropped 15-20%. There are exceptions as all real estate has local factors. More to come.
Speaking of Canada, a 33’x 120′ “city lot” with a teardown going for $4.5 million is totally insane if one builds a SFH on that lot. For the moment, the developers who are propping up the mkt have the zoning to build up to 6 units on that property. We have a tremendous shortage of affordable housing in Canada which is also propping up the mkt….for now.
Otherwise a SFH that is not a teardown and does not have zoning for more than two units will likely drop substantially.
This is keeping the mkt inflated in the Cities, especially Vancouver.
Years ago it was the mass influx of foreign money bidding up properties. That’s on pause thankfully. Tons of empty SFH in Vancouver where I live. If the Chinese sell en mass, look out below.
When the war starts with China, likely late 2025 or 2026, watch the Chinese get out of dodge, like rats leaving a sinking ship.
The war is already baked in the cake, and Canada has signed up to it already.
Wow. Look at the clarity of the 5 wave Elliot patterns in those last 4 countries. Can a massive expected reversal really be denied anymore? Its on the charts and baked in the cake. Can the bubbliness still be ignored? Who cannot see this? House Debtors are going to get squashed into pancakes. But what does it mean for an economy built entirely on housing growth as its largest industry? And does anyone really doubt a Canadian bank or two will end up closed before the crash has concluded? I don’t know what anyone else sees in those charts, but to me there is a tragedy in the making that cannot be avoided anymore. Its just a matter of when it all comes apart.