Loading ...CLIVE MAUND
For Years when this was Primarily a Gold TA Site we posted prognostications from various Chartist
I was never really fond of this Guy. He seemed wrong a LOT …usually bearish ( we used to call him Wrong Way Clive)
A Rambus member just sent me this Analysis from Clive…It looks very plausible unfortunately…at the least its a very compelling bearish take…complete with charts AND some Interesting Geopolitical Commentary
What do Y’all think ?
I have UUP near topping, not in an IHS.
After that coming drop and PM rebound, we might have trouble though.
I am more optimistic than wrong way clive.
So while he makes good points about the BRICS and the US pushing back militarily (as I said in post about the Japanese backing off stopping YCC and the snowstorm in Saudi Arabia) His saying those charts are H&S tops is a joke. He is usually a good technician but those are not H&S patterns. He may end up correct about his call but didn’t sell me with his charts.
Note the unfilled gap on his gold chart, at $1850 support.
What are the chances that get filled? 100%.
It may, but gaps on the gold chart are less useful than a stock or something traded on an exchange with set limited hours. Something like gold, oil, fx, that trades globally almost 24/7 probably never gapped in reality. Those are continuous futures cotracts that get all kinds of distortions from rolling over contracts from one month to a new one. So while I don’t believe gold is going to drop that low, if it does, it has nothing to do with a “gap” on a futures contract chart.
This has been disappointing action to say the least, at least with respect to the miners, especially silver miners.
They have been drastically underperforming silver ever since the Fed started QT in 2022.
The HUI:gold ratio is now approaching the bottom rail established by lows in 2016 and 2020 and is now 50% below where it was at the bottom of the 2008-09 crash!
The negative nancy in me is expecting a big break down in gold imminently (this week or very early next week).
The only positive I can state at the moment, and it is tenuous at best, is that gold is in a triangle consolidation and has broken the intermediate downtrend line last week.
In a vacuum, I wouldn’t be concerned with gold at all, but looking at the miserable performance of the miners (what are they discounting afterall?), I am having flashbacks to 2013.
Another positive is that in yen terms, the HUI has held up on the weekly charts just fine (for now). Too bad I am not Japanese.
Another positive, FWIW, the HUI’s flat 400 WMA is going to positively cross the still declining 600 WMA sometime in March. The last time that happened was over 20 years ago.
Also, the 200 week bollinger bands are historically very tight now, matching their width in 2013 (just before the crash into 2016) and in 2020. Bottom line is they are setting up a huge volatility event.
The lower 200 week band is now coming in at 181 and rising every week, which is above the low October 2022 low, so that should also provide some support, in theory.
Big sustained moves up or down are almost always preceded by some sort of fakeout move in the opposite direction initially.
The pattern is not a head and shoulders. I will correct his chart and post a more optimistic view above.