There is a reason Powell has continued to pushback against the anticipated future rate cuts, and as I said in a post earlier this week, it has nothing to do with inflation. He has gradually, over a series of meetings, taken hikes off the table, laid the groundwork for a series of cuts but continued to pushback against when and how many cuts would be coming, why? The reason has nothing to do with inflation and or a soft landing. The reason why you cut rates is because either you are in a recession and or the banking system and money markets are seizing up. If either or both of those two conditions occur, cutting rates by 1/4 point, gradually over a 6-9 month period of time, isn’t going to help stop a banking crisis nor mitigate a recession. To address either of those problems you need sharp, aggressive action. It takes at least a half point or more likely three quarters or even a full point cut to get things started if the money markets seize up or the economy is dropping sharply. Powell is keeping his powder dry and making sure that when he pulls the trigger, the move will have a maximum effect by shocking and surprising the markets. It will be big and it will be before May, maybe even before the March meeting occurs. Nothing gets the markets attention like an unscheduled, unexpectedly large, emergency cut, and that is what he is preparing for. The bond market is telling you that and gold is about to confirm it.