Loading ...Trump is quite unpopular in Canada, with a 2022 survey showing 81% of Canadians would vote for Joe Biden, while 19% would vote for Donald Trump.
WOW…I BELEIVE THIS WAS RIGHT THOUGH …UNTIL RECENTLY UP HERE YOU CAN’T JUST WEAR A MAGA HAT NOR CLAIM TO BE A TRUMP SUPPORTER WITHOUT GETTING DIRTY LOOKS FROM MOST…EVEN IN RURAL AREAS…AT LEAST THAT WAS THE CASE IN 2022 WHEN THIS SURVEY WAS TAKEN ….HOWEVER I AM CERTAIN IF THE SURVEY WERE TAKEN NOW TRUMP WOULD HAVE AT LEAST DOUBLE THAT SUPPORT . I SEE IT EVERY DAY .
………….
OK…Here is some interesting Canadian Political Analysis from Spencer Fernando ( an independent Conservative Political Analyst who is really tuned in to the situation up here in Canuckistan
He is laying out 3 “TRAPS” Conservatives need to be vigilant of regarding Poilievre vs The Turd
THE FIRST AND FOREMOST IS THE TRUMP EFFECT
Here is his analysis : You may disagree but it iS interesting ..
…………………………..
“The legacy media and the Liberals are nothing if not lazy.
And so, they’ll go for the laziest attack on the Conservatives, which will be to compare Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump.
It’s lazy because there is almost no similarity between the two individuals, not in life experience, nor communication style, nor even in many aspects of their ideology, with Poilievre being more of a small government classical liberal (in the traditional sense of the term), while Trump is more of a personality-based celebrity who is more willing to use state power to impose his vision. While there are some areas of similarity in areas such as energy policy, Trump is in many ways more like Justin Trudeau.
Both Trudeau and Trump were born into positions of relative wealth and prominence, and both have built personality cults around themselves.
By contrast, while Pierre Poilievre is certainly popular among the Conservatives base (and increasingly the broader country), his popularity is largely based on a communication style that is focuses on informing people and presenting specific ideas to address specific problems. For example, his 15-minute-long views on the housing crisis are examples of a willingness to try and explain Conservativism and persuade the public to shift their views, rather than just pandering to what people already think. In this way – as I’ve said before – Poilievre is much more like Ronald Reagan.
But none of that matters to the media, and it doesn’t matter to the Liberals, because they believe the comparison will work to their advantage.
And they may not be wrong.
Trump is quite unpopular in Canada, with a 2022 survey showing 81% of Canadians would vote for Joe Biden, while 19% would vote for Donald Trump.
Even in the most Conservative province, 67% of Albertans say they would vote for Biden, while 33% would vote for Trump.
The problem for the Conservatives is that their voters are relatively split.
That 2022 survey showed 56% of CPC voters would vote for Biden, while 44% would vote for Trump. Other surveys have shown Trump slightly ahead of CPC voters, but it’s also worth noting that the CPC is more popular than in 2022, and their broadened support base likely includes many former Liberal supporters who are also quite opposed to Trump.
With this being an election year in the United States, and with the US election coverage set to suck all the oxygen out of the room, the Liberals are hoping that having Trump on TV all the time will give them a chance to cut the Conservative lead down by a few points, while putting the Conservatives in the uncomfortable position of dealing with someone who divides their own base.
Yet, I think this trap will be relatively easy for the Conservatives to escape – for two key reasons.
First, all Poilievre has to do to differentiate himself from Donald Trump is to be himself. Poilievre is obviously an analytical thinker, while Trump is an emotive showman. Poilievre looks nothing like Trump and talks nothing like Trump. The comparison fails on a superficial level, and because we live in a superficial time, it will be tough for the Liberals to make it stick.
Second, Poilievre and the CPC have the perfect ‘get out of jail free card’ when it comes to discussing Trump. As the prospective government in waiting, the Conservatives will need to preserve their ability to deal with whomever wins, whether that means dealing with a re-elected Biden Administration or dealing with a second Trump Administration. Sounding off on American politics jeopardizes Canada’s potential relations with the United States, and thus a prudent incoming government would be wise to say nothing at all other than pledging to “respect the choice of our American neighbours and work amicably with whomever they choose to lead.” Simply telling all CPC MPs to stay silent on the US election and repeating that line or a similar line whenever asked will be enough to avoid any foolish comments or ‘clipable’ moments that could be used in attack ads.”
For trap #2 and #3 see the comments section
Trap #2 – Immigration
In years past, the trap facing the Conservatives on immigration is that they would be perceived as ‘anti-immigrant,’ and would lose support from Canadian voters on that basis.
But that was a different world.
That was when Canada had an immigration system that was well-run.
That was when Canada’s immigration intake was reasonable, though still quite generous compared to most nations.
That was when Canada focused mostly on bringing in people who were a good fit for the economy.
And that was when all those factors mentioned above had created a sustained pro-immigration consensus.
None of that exists today.
The Liberals have become extremists on immigration, ramping up the numbers to absurd levels and generating a crisis that is wrecking our standard of living, ruining our social programs, and rapidly destabilizing our country.
And so, the trap facing the Conservatives is that they won’t be tough enough on immigration.
The Conservative base is demanding cuts to immigration. Ignoring the base is always dangerous, though Poilievre will get significant leeway from the base given his immense success as the party leader. Poilievre has also shown an ability to wait for the public to arrive at a ‘conservative’ position before embracing that position, something that gives him cover from Liberal attacks.
However, with Canadians having rapidly turned against higher immigration, the Conservatives don’t want to be too slow to arrive where the public is. Additionally, they must avoid falling into the trap of thinking they can win support by being more pro-immigration than the Liberals. The public – not to mention the CPC base – has no patience for that right now.
So far, Poilievre is navigating this quite well.
He has said he will tie immigration levels to housing construction, and if the CPC codifies that in their party platform it will be a way to advocate for a significant immigration cut in a way that won’t come across as overly ideological or aggressive. That is the position and approach the CPC should stick too.
The challenge will be what they do when they inevitably get attacked as ‘anti-immigrant’ anyway, since we know the Liberals and the media will lie desperately in their attempt to stay in power.
If the Conservatives succumb to the pressure of those attacks, they could risk angering their own base by showing weakness, without stopping the Liberals/NDP/Media from making those attacks anyway.
This is the trap Erin O’Toole fell into repeatedly. Now, given that Pierre Poilievre is the CPC Leader because of O’Toole’s failure to maintain the support of the CPC base, it’s unlikely Poilievre will fall into that trip, but he will have to make sure some of the less confident CPC MPs don’t do so.
If the Conservatives avoid the trap and play their cards right, they could be the main beneficiaries of the rapid shift against mass immigration among the Canadian public.
Trap #3 – The government-funded national power structure
The third major trap for the Conservatives to overcome will be the most diffuse and dangerous.
During the Liberals time n power, they have massively expanded the role of the state.
Spending has exploded.
The bureaucracy is about 33% larger than it was in 2015, as is government spending – an increase far beyond any combination of population growth and inflation.
Money has been showered on a nearly endless array of various organizations and even ‘private businesses.’
CBC funding has been increased substantially, and even more egregiously, much of the legacy press is now heavily dependent on government funding.
That same government-dependent media also benefits from legislation like Bill C-11 and C-18 that is designed to restrict independent media, control social media, and redirect money towards the legacy press – further increasing their dependence on the government.
Where am I going with all of this?
Well, it means there has been a huge increase in the number of people who have a direct financial interest in keeping the Liberals in power. There is a massive government-funded power structure that wants to keep the Conservatives from winning the next election.
While the country would benefit from the Conservatives winning and bringing in more pro-growth economic policies, a return to fiscal responsibility wouldn’t be welcomed by those who are feeding at the trough of taxpayer dollars thanks to the Liberals.
Those groups will be desperate to keep the Liberals/NDP in power, meaning we can expect a ton of well-financed campaigns demonizing the Conservatives. Large public-sector unions will also be a part of this, even as their members increasingly move towards the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will thus face a combined assault from the Liberals/NDP, the media, the unions, and a whole bunch of organizations that want to keep the money flowing.
Now, the goal of that massive assault on the Conservatives won’t be to stop them from winning the most seats, since that seems nearly impossible. Rather, the goal will be to push the Conservatives down below the 170-seat majority mark, to stymie their agenda and even leave open the possibility for the Liberals/NDP to stay in power despite the Conservatives winning more seats.
So, how can the Conservatives overcome this?
The key thing will be for them to increase their embrace of both social media and independent media.
Social media gives them a direct line to Canadians, which can enable them to overcome the impending assault.
Independent media also continues to grow rapidly, and isn’t dependent on the government, thus ensuring it has the freedom to criticize the government and hold the government accountable.
The more the Conservatives give interviews to independent outlets, the more they send a signal to Conservative supporters that independent outlets should be supported. The more those outlets are supported, the more powerful they become, and the more the power of the government-funded power structure is diluted.
This is why 2024 is going to be such a battle.
The Conservatives and independent media are rising, but the Liberals/NDP/Media/government power structure is still in power at this moment and won’t go down without a fight.
Thanks for this FGC. His take was well thought out and he explained it clearly. While I understand the negative polling of Trump in Canada, how did most Canadians feel about US relations with Canada during Trump’s tenure? Did Trump not treat Canada as a respected and valued ally or was there any particular issue or behavior where he may have pissed off Canadians?
Canadians in general don’t like what they see as his Pompas attitude…also the got their news from MSM mostly at that time 2 years ago
That is changing somewhat now
Also remember America First means Canada “Last”
He was angry at previous Trade deals which he wanted to renegotiate because they favored Canada
BUT mostly I think it was his cult like personality …and his portrayal in the Media as a Racist Misogynist and all the crap. Even I fell for that back in the Day . I was really happy he beat Hillary …then I tuned in to MSM and got convinced he didnt know what he was doing. I had TDS for a while but Got straightened out here 🙂