Early 2024 Stock Market Observations
Having last commented on the stock market with my Wednesday Dec 27th post “Early Seventies “Nifty Fifty”(https://goldtadise.com/?p=599873) I concluded that piece by saying that much like 2022, The Mag 7 had mostly topped out and were likely to fall, early in 2024 and most likely for most of them, for the year as a whole. For the last two days of 2023 and the first four of 2024 that was spot on. Yesterday, we got the mother of all short squeeze induced, sucker rallies of all time. Purposely orchestrated to put the early Jan.indicator in question, it fell just short of erasing the entire decline in the S&P 500, so far in 2024. While I don’t automatically rely on the indicator it has a good track record. I don’t really care whether it works or not in 2024 since my call is based on the overvaluation and over positioning in the Mag 7. I am ambivalent towards the S&P 500. Today looks like a typical counter trend Tuesday in reversing some of the outsized move from yesterday. Interestingly, yesterday’ big move in the NASDAQ 100 represented almost a complete 50% correction of it’s drop from the Wed. high to the Friday low. While I wouldn’t be surprised if after today’s pullback, we get another small rally in the NASDAQ 100 on Wed. By the end of the week and surely by month end the trend downward should resume. Maybe just a slow drift lower, until economic and geopolitical events provide a catalyst for increased volatility.