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moar charts, right?
https://danericselliottwaves.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/spxdaily.png
(to novices, the blue red and black 5s coincide at the top signifying cycle ends at least at three degrees of trend.)
At the local level, in line with my remarks last week.
Dan is something of a permabear, so ‘grain of salt’ applies.
But a solid bear move is nearing after black 5. (However its properly labeled in the end)
What happens after this “top” is still uncertain (at least to me). Even if you ‘know.’
The muddle through count sees 5 INSTEAD as a B and then we triangle in very large waves this year (C D and E).
If C down IS next (we should go well below 4000 but not revisit Oct 22).
A bigger bear move …. too soon to detail the potential there.
Dan has a bond chart tonight also, which sees further yield retrace.
THE REAL TROUBLE starts when that retrace completes.
“THE REAL TROUBLE starts when that retrace completes.”
Maybe that’s after 45 wins, and decides to Rebuild to MAGA.
Starting by moving the nation’s capital (agencies and all) to the Dakotas out near the Badlands.
That would resize it.
So the big question is Pedro, the next higher wave count. If the 5 we just finished is the end of a 1 or 3, then we retrace back to 3600(ish) (the end of the previous wave 4 as a rule of thumb), and then we are off to new highs again. If the next higher count shows a 5, we are in for a once in a lifetime drop.
Personally, I don’t see a 1930’s type of bear market unless we get into a world war (which is not out of the question).
“So the big question is pedro, the next higher wave count.”
DBC in next vid calls for 4 decade bear. (pointing to Japan as example)
Avi Gilburt sees the same.
Near term we could wedge before a final pre deflationary spurt.
Rates dictate the VLT equity trends.