Loading ...LUONGO HAS AN INTERESTING TAKE AS ALWAYS
ON THE NEW HOUTHI CRISIS
…………..
We didnt know a “Houthi” from a hole in the ground until a couple days ago
Now they are all the Rage
Screw Hamas….thats old news…here come the Houthis
sheesh
SEE THE LUONGO IN THE COMMENT SECTION AND SEE WHAT YOU THINK
Im not sure I understand what he is saying
someone please summarize
We’ve had a lot of foreshadowing of the Suez Canal being a major hotspot for conflict over the past couple of years. Think back to the Evergreen beaching itself in the canal in 2021. Everyone is just now waking up to the idea that global shipping is at risk here.
https://tinyurl.com/5n69y5cb
The Twitter thread I link to above (by a self-professed moron who seems to have a good grasp on things) is representative of the level of analysis being put forth by people still in love with the US Navy’s ability to force project around the world.
Now, I want you to go back to just after the October 7th attack by Hamas. The US response was to quickly move in with massive naval force to signal our support of Israel and also to ‘warn Iran.’ Martin Armstrong immediately brought up the point of this being a trap for the US.
The Thucydides Trap is one where a dominant power is provoked into a response against a rising power over an issue that it has to respond to to prove its supremacy but they cannot win. This is exactly what the rising power wants the dominant power to do.
This is what Armstrong brought up, the possibility of Russia/Iran/China springing a Thucydides Trap on the US over Israel.
So, how does the Houthi attacks on global shipping fit into this?
The same way that “Iranian Militias” have stepped up their attacks on US forces stationed in Syria and Iraq. The goal is to pus the US out of the Middle East and redraw the map undoing both the Balfour Declaration and Sykes-Picot. Israel has a choice, the Balfour Declaration is still negotiable.
Skyes-Picot, however, is not. The Arabs and the Persians are tired of the conflicts the West flares up over old British-drawn borders.
Everyone makes the mistake of thinking that the US backs Israel because of “The Jews.” But it’s far deeper than that. That’s literally the bullshit cover story for British strategic analysis of the world map from the perspective of a “former” maritime empire.
And, sadly, as I’ve been arguing for years, jews are the ones who will suffer the backlash.
The British (and old continental Europe) understand completely that globalism is dependent on global shipping. Moreover, as Dexter White has brought up to me in multiple conversations (and which I think has leaked out into our public discourse, if memory serves), shipping is far more efficient and less vulnerable ultimately than multi-thousand-mile-long pipelines, which can be easily sabotaged.
That was the lesson of the Nordstream bombings, to remind everyone.
So, to protect global shipping, which traditionally is controlled by the major European shipping companies and the City of London Insurance industry, attacks on physical infrastructure like pipelines, railways, refineries, etc. makes perfect sense. Blow up ports (Beirut) controlled by your enemy, and you force the world to go through the ports you control.
What I’m suggesting now is that Iran/China/Russia are going after the idea that shipping isn’t as vulnerable as physical infrastructure. In fact, the US “empire” is a naval one just like the British one was. They are modeled on the same structure and worldview.
I believe I’ve said many times that Putin would get back at the US/UK for blowing up Nordstream, for taking out their physical property. Putin is patient. He understood symbolically what Nordstream represented. Pipeline diplomacy is Russia’s best chance at avoiding protracted war for the next century.
Stitch the world together with gas and oil, stabilize borders, rebuild Russia, introduce a new kind of peace. It’s a kind of peace not dependent on maritime prowess, which is the British model, and well it should be since England is an island in the north Atlantic.
And now he’s taking his opportunity to strike at the heart of the maritime prowess of globalism itself by allowing Iran to activate the Houthis to attack commercial shipping around the Gulf of Aden.
Target: Egypt
Now, let’s look at the real target of the Hamas attack on Israel. Who has been at the center of all of the major challenges to the globalist plan in 2023?
Egypt.
It is Egypt that the Russians and Chinese were encouraging to default on their IMF debt, offering to write down their debt to Egypt if the IMF did the same. Alex Krainer and I have talked about this ad nauseum.
It was my conclusion about this year’s BRICS Summit that all talk of a BRICS currency was smoke and mirrors compared to what they actually accomplished — taking ‘control’ over all the waterway surrounding the Arabian peninsula, i.e. the most globally important shipping lanes to old Europe and what’s left of the British.
Egypt was the prize folks. And since the moment it was announced that Egypt would be joining the BRICS, the focus has been on trying to stop it from happening by destabilizing the country. So, let’s start a brutal ground war over an attack that Israeli leadership knew was coming in order to create a refugee crisis into Egypt. Let’s step up pressure on the el-Sisi government and try for a color revolution again after the election.
Here’s yesterday’s War Street Journal headline, despite el-Sisi winning with nearly 90%.
“Egypt’s Sisi Faces Stiff Challenges in Third Term as President”
Surprise to me they didn’t even publicly challenge the result and try for another color revolution (like they are in Serbia). Maybe we finally get to see just how limited the funds are now that Powell’s got rates at 5.5%, but I’m just being churlish.
The article is a roadmap to Egypt’s future with respect to its relations with the West. We will try to economically pressure el-Sisi into submission. It won’t work.
So, the way I see this in terms of move-countermove is the following, since I wrote about it in October’s Issue of the Newsletter:
1) BRICS bring Egypt into the fold knowing that it opens up alternate funding options for the country outside of the IMF loan sharks.
2) The Hamas attack is allowed to go forward with everyone thinking it’s to their advantage to do so.
3) Israel/US/UK think they can pressure Egypt into submission, Russia/Iran/China think they can up the pressure on the US to leave the region.
4) Remember, Hamas was a sacrificial pawn in this game, by both sides… Iran and the UK.
5) So, Netanyahu acts completely to type by launching a brutal land grab with talk everywhere about the oil fields, the new trade corridor from India to Israel into Europe, which is a direct attack on the Suez.
6) The US moves in multiple carrier groups to ‘protect vital shipping operations.’
7) Iran clearly is provoking the US by then activating the Houthis to attack commercial ships. Piracy coming out of the Horn of Africa increases. Everyone still thinks they have cards to play.
8) Remember, Davos wants the US in a position where it cannot maintain Pax Americana. The UK is desperate to maintain this…. this is the fundamental tension between the Neocons and old Europe.
9) Davos is happy to cut a deal with China and Russia over keeping trade routes open so they announce quickly that all the major European shipping companies pull out of using the Suez Canal.
10) But notice how the Houthis aren’t attacking everyone. Only the ships of the West, harassing the US Navy, hitting MAERSK liners, etc.
So, is the Suez now unsafe in general because of the lawlessness of the region or is it just unsafe for the West? If China’s cargo ships are allowed to go through and Russia’s oil tankers as well, then we have our answer.
Because to me this whole thing reeks of a setup. Think about how easy it was for the Davos shipping companies to announce their leaving the Suez behind. Was this because the US refused to fall into the trap of trying to defend them with the US Navy?
If so, then the US/UK get a win here and the pressure on Egypt stays in place with lower Suez traffic. However, the BRICS get their win as they effectively control the entire region which maps directly with the new BRICS map.
The Hobson’s Choice for the US is if the navy intervenes that keeps Pax Americana in place but that let’s pressure off Egypt, because the minute we do then the Houthis will stop playing games. Egypt stabilizes, the Suez is reinforced and the squeeze is over.
If the US doesn’t intervene then Pax Americana on the high seas is dead and the pressure on global shipping will increase. Egypt will have to be more directly supported economically by Russia and China. el-Sisi will have no other choice.
But this also secures, in the long run, the pivot point for both China’s Belt and Road as well as Russia’s International North South Transport Corridor.
And who is the crossroads for both of these? Iran!
Lastly, the cost to the Europe will be enormous as the extra travel time around Africa will only make goods coming out of Europe that much more expensive.
But, there’s another angle on this as well… oil demand.
In an email to a private discussion group I’m in the following back-of-the-envelope calculation on global oil demand was made…
The average number of suez canal transits per day is 56 (let’s say 1/2 divert). The extra deviation around Africa is about 10 to 12 days (use 10). Fuel consumption per day is from 150 to 350 (call it 250). There is about 7.5 bbls per ton of bunker fuel. SO, 28 ships * 10 days * 250 mt * 7.5 bbls/mt = 525,000 bbls per day of extra consumption if 1/2 the ships that normally use the suez deviate.
500,000 bbls/day is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, it’s immense in marginal demand terms. It undermines the entire Israeli gambit to pressure Egypt.
And this is why OPEC+ (or BROPEC+) is not screaming about the attacks on shipping. The QED for this entire analysis is the following headline from Reuters:
“Saudi Arabia urges US restraint as Houthis attack ships in Red Sea”
Doesn’t anyone wonder why the Saudis are so quiet on this? This is piracy on their doorstep. The Houthis are supposed to be their enemies, since they fought a war against them for years.
But this gambit by the BRICS is clearly in their best interest and tells you all you need to know about who MbS and the rest of the royal family now back in all things geopolitical. Iranian-backed terrorists are openly harassing shipping around the Arabian peninsula and the Saudis “urge restraint?”
Checkmate Putin.
He has so many possibilities in there so he can come back later and say he was right. I am still waiting for his Powell and the FED fighting a war to destroy Europe to develop. I stopped reading anything from him long ago. Like most of these guys, long winded scenarios with lots of pages to charge more for his “expert” analysis.
One thing that is consistently overlooked is Russia’s huge lead in missile and air defence technology. American aircraft carriers are no longer capable of imposing order against the interests of Russia or China, and in fact, it might also be true of Iran soon. Hypersonic missile technology has flipped the world on its head, and the effects are profound in terms of future trade and economic development.