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M2 RoC leads inflation by 18-21 months.
3 times in the last 120 years, M2 RoC has moved into negative growth YoY.
1st time in 1922, which created a Deflationary Bust of -15.79% YoY inflation.
2nd time in 1932, which created a Deflationary Bust of -10.74% YoY inflation.
3rd time was in 2023…. Deflationary Bust coming next year and into 2025.
….however – first BlowOffTop ??
Are you prepared for this Whipsaw?
post and replies
https://twitter.com/HenrikZeberg/status/1736764948502769700
The question is being asked: What is it the Fed saw that caused it to go from “not even thinking about thinking about rate cuts” to “a pause and probable rate cuts in 2024” …??
Nothing changed with the economy – it’s still humming along just fine.
Is it a Deflationary Correction that the Fed sees on the horizon?
(Simon Hunt is also calling for a deflationary correction in Q1 2024)