How can we know? We can’t, but we can watch for pertinent evidence
my emphasis in bold and notes in italics

$SPX 1H: More clear view on bull/bear scenario from here.
Bulls need 3 waves pullback to hold 0.5-0.618 of last move since (b) low.
(blue/gray path up for more)
Impulse down, will shift the mode back in favor of (B) top.
red path down, where (B) was July.