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Quick update. Rally has been aggressive, I think too aggressive given we are in a bear market. Will be taking short positions if/when we enter the zone between the two lines I drew. Will bail if we break above. We just started day 4 of the 7 day cycle. See what happens.
Japan announced huge stimulus to counter inflation… that never ends well. They are going to have trouble containing their yields.
“huge stimulus to counter inflation”
There you have it.
Keynesian non sense.
Stimulus means fiscal spending beyond one’s budget, which can only be financed by central bank counterfeiting via creation of more high powered money. (buying sovereign bonds with de novo fiat)
Agreed, unfortunately Japan has been doing this for a loooong time. They are in the doom loop further than anyone else by a lot, They already own most of their gov bonds and even stock ETFs! The rally of the JPY on this news smells like a fake out before a serious collapse against the USD.
By the way, we EWers are likely seeing this rally as the A of an ABC Santa Rally into yearend for a wave 2 rebound ahead of the ” ” wave. That which shall not be said out loud.
Does that mean a B wave correction is coming from EW analysis? Assuming if a B wave, that means no new lows?
All of my remarks in terms of ABCs or 12345s are in the EW sense.
Here is ONE perspective on the action here.
https://twitter.com/GoldTAnalysis/status/1720076116864717294/photo/1
An abc up could run without b making a new low on “the way up” to 2.
That would be the “2” on his chart, since 2 is an abc internally.
I just see it taking much longer than he shows it.
Thanks for this, helps a lot to understand!
I will also add that as we now approach the resistance range this morning, VIX has also entered it’s range of support. I see alot of horizontal support between 15.85, down to 15.05. Not sure where it will stop, but we are about to enter the first hurdle upwards for stocks.
Good discussion Gus and pedro