Are you curious what will happen if war breaks out between the US and Iran due to the atttacks on Israel? Well wonder no more because I can tell you that its a virtual guarantee the Suez Canal will be closed, blockaded or caused to be no longer navigable as a result of the conflict.

Do you think that the Iranians are going to just wait for US Marines and Carrier Strike groups to float through the Suez on their way to the Arabian Sea? Not bloody likely. It serves their interests to choke off all merchant traffic by sinking a ship in the canal and ending the use of the Seaway to all of Europe and America until the war ends.

China itself can close the Suez in support of Iran and Russia via their strategic military base in Djibouti at the entrance to the Bab Al Mandab entry point to the Red Sea. They may do that to limit US access to Irans Southern Coastal areas. Then there is Egypt who owns the Suez. It is a devout Muslim nation that is militarily on the fence right now with regards to the conflict in Palestine and they may just close the Suez in order to help keep the peace. And then there is the Saudi wild card, They control most of the Red Sea as its their Western border and have their own agendas in play.

So many participants…so many reasons for shipping to come to a halt.

Do you recall how inflation spiraled out of control when China’s Ever-Given container ship was blocking the canal for a mere week and East/West maritime trade ground to a screeching halt? Hundreds of ships began clogging Chinese and American ports almost immediately. Cargo stopped moving. Buyers and sellers panicked as the blockage continued and freight rates went nuts. Well its going to happen again if there is a war and next time the canal may be closed for years, not mere days.

My advice? If there is something critical you need from Asia you had better stock up now. Especially if its heavy cargo that cannot be flown to buyers abroad. If you need spare parts this is also the time to buy them. Because when the Suez goes dark the cost of absolutely everything from Asia is going to skyrocket higher and a great many products will never even get delivered. Maybe never….

The economic implications are stark. Global trade is going to suffer. Inflation will become rampant in consumer goods. But the darker conclusion is that pretty much everyone is going to see drops in their GDP that will most likely see negative prints. Yes recession at first. Ultimately its a depression though. The whole of the global economy will be choked off from an industrial perspective. Maybe that’s the plan. Commercial space will finally be tipped into the abyss and unemployment will begin to rise just about everywhere including China where workers will get laid off if nobody is buying their products.

The implications are enormous and cannot be stated in strong enough words. The closure of the Suez, which is a guarantee if Iran and Israel go to war, have got the most dire economic implications imaginable. I am not saying this lightly. Your life will be altered by that event.