Loading ...Tuesday laugh
Given we may be about to go off a cliff in the markets, and for anyone who is down on their PMs, here is a good laugh from Mr. “My forecasts are never wrong”
On September 19th, he posted a chart literally showing gold going to the moon, moon image and all. Then 2 weeks later, today, he posts that gold is still tracking his chart from 2019, and he has redrawn his trendlines etc. Now he says a back test to 1585 is NOT possible, in all caps. Are we now locked in for 1585??
I am not one to dunk on people, but he has been posting in others timelines calling others out about being wrong, saying that his forecasts are never wrong because they are based on “scientific weight of evidence”.
Sir Gus,
I really appreciate “I am not one to dunk on people”
As I posted here … https://goldtadise.com/?p=595556 … do you think that a plethora of chartists … a.k.a. those who treat TA almost as a science (more than an art), and therefore use the phrase “weight of evidence” … are being proven wrong again and again and again?
Please enlighten me.
GL
For the most part yes. For me it is the overconfidence in ones view over others that bothers me specifically. For example, Northstar using the term scientific weight of evidence, the problem is that means that you back test, define the probabilities given the variables you are implying. What he is actually doing is cherry picking his lines, giving various prices a probability based on his own subjectivity and then saying it was based on science because he looks at multiple scenarios. Classic exmaple is how he just moved his red arrow down starting at now where the drop is, because his subjectivity is he has to believe that that the cup and handle formation will play out.
If it was truly scientific, he would somehow be able to draw the same type of line with with the same situations and see how many times it breaks up or down his lines. The problem is, you can’t really do this with charts, because you never really get the exact same line so it is impossible to back test. Therefore, it isn’t scientific in anyway.
Personally, I think the human emotion is the strongest driver of stocks, this is why i like cycles, because it helps you be aware when you are becoming greedy and want to buy more, or going down the steps of despair and ready to give up and sell. Likely at the wrong time. The reason I bring this up is that the large cup and handle formation in gold is the most charted thing i have seen for over a year. If EVERYONE sees it, expects it, and is positioned for it, then it can’t happen.
The best trades i have made is when every feeling in my body was telling me i was going to lose money. And most often, the trades I lose on, are ones i was soooo confident in i was imagining myself as Bill Ackman in a couple years 10 seconds after hitting the buy button.
I probably didn’t understand your question, but just in case, my two cents about the charts.
I do find them useful. But not so much to ‘know’ where price will go, but more as a tool to see how price reacts in certain situations. I like to find inflection points, where is more likely, that price will speed up in one or another direction, for example. They you watch and observe. If it starts doing what you wanted, hoped for, enter the trade. If then soon reverses and goes on the other side of that inflection point, it didn’t work, close position.
This way, you get an entry point, and you know when trade didn’t work.
Another way to look at charts, after years of staring at them, sometimes you just expect, it will do certain thing. Based on past observations, based on years of watching charts, you really do get an edge by getting those educated guesses more often right than not. Of course, you will still often enough be wrong, but you do get an edge.
But if someone says I’m always right, my charts don’t lie, I would run away as fast as possible 🙂
Yep, he deserves it 😉 and thanks for the reply yesterday. I’m lately less logged in, so I’m responding with delays. Appreciate all the details you posted. Now I know what to do, if I think I know what will be ST move, which usually does not happen lol
No problem, i actually forgot to add that the more money you are playing with, the longer duration is a better choice. I limit option purchases to less than 5% of my portfolio, and in reality I rarely buy any position over $1k. Some play options for the leverage on larger positions, then the long duration plays could work.
Thanks for this Gus ! Dunk Away 🙂
He is FULL OF HIMSELF AND THEREFORE FULL OF ….. !!
WTF WITH THESE BOWLS ALREADY ?
When he and Patrtick were neophytes here honing their skills i encouraged them so maybe it’s Fully’s Fault
Bowls is all they got ?
Let us not forget Northstar is first and foremost a weather man…Climate Guy…He had me convinced that Global Warming was a thing…then one day I found a good article showing it really wasn’t a thing…i posted it…he freaked out…No discussion…took his Bowls and left.
Look at that Outer Bowl in his last chart…WTF is that >? No touches on it at all…he just makes shit up
These Bowls can be drawn in any shape or size with the Parabolic Tool on these platforms…you can bend them all day to fit any chart
Thanks Gus…Makes my day to see this pompuos “Chartist” get called out .
To the Moon…thats the kiss of death ( I should know ) LOL
sheesh
Agree Fully, the over confidence is oozing out of him, I have actually been using him as a contrarian play lately and it is working well. I feel sorry for the ones trading and paying for his service, if i am making money doing the opposite, doesn’t bode well for those following.
There charts are quite all over the place, I find it interesting how often their trend lines seemingly align with wicks on one touch, through the wick and on the bar in other touch, and then back to only a wick, all in one line. And i especially love how he just moved his top trend line in the two images I posted. Quite fascinating to see, and the sheer inability to be self aware.