Goldtent TA Paradise

Positive Conservative message presents a massive challenge for the Liberal-NDP Pact

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   September 11, 2023 - 8:28 pm at 8:28 pm

   What stood out the most at the Conservative convention was how positive much of the messaging was – particularly the highly-effective speeches by both Pierre Poilievre and Anaida Poilievre.

   While the convention featured the usual criticisms of the government and current situation in Canada that you would expect from an event held by the main Opposition party, the main message put forth by the Conservative Party was a message focused more on hope than negativity.

   Here are links to a few representative clips from Pierre & Anaida Poilievre’s remarks that indicate what I am talking about:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2-J5KSD7h8

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5QrZR3jCc4

   What you’ll notice is that the Conservatives aren’t shying away from how difficult things are in the country now. But rather than stop there, they are tying those difficulties to a message that things can and will be better with a change of government.

   To put it mildly, this is a serious problem for both the Liberals & NDP, and here’s why:

   We’ll start with the Liberals.

   Liberals
   They have now been in power for about eight years. As we’ve discussed before, things are objectively worse across the board in many aspects of Canadian life. Our country is in the midst of a housing affordability crisis, a broader cost-of-living crisis, violent crime is rising, drug overdose deaths are up, social program quality is declining, and our image on the world stage is about as bad as it has been in recent memory.

   The one thing the Liberals long had going for them was the perception that they were the positive and hopeful party. Justin Trudeau campaigned on ‘sunny ways’ and ‘hope and hard work,’ and often returned to that messaging on election nights. Even amid his own increasingly negative messaging and the negative state of things in Canada, Trudeau has still tried to portray himself as the positive choice, contrasted to Poilievre’s supposed ‘negativity.’

   Unfortunately for Trudeau, you can’t be the ‘hopeful new guy’ after eight years in power, and when things in the country are so terrible any attempt by the government to put a positive spin on things appears disconnected at best and completely delusional at worst.

   You can see the Liberals struggling with this, as their ‘best’ response to Pierre Poilievre’s convention speech was to trot out a clip of Jean Chretien:

   https://twitter.com/L_MacAulay/status/1700571435767386389

   The problem for the Liberals is that events moved in a very different direction under Chretien than they did under Trudeau.

   Chretien took office facing a massive budget deficit, which was brought down through significant budget cuts and tax hikes. Chretien had the political room to make those difficult decisions because the Reform Party had helped move the ‘Overton Window’ and reestablish a taboo against big deficits.

   After a few years of restraint, Canada was able to benefit from an improved credit rating, which – alongside strong global growth in much of the 1990s and closer trade ties with the United States and Mexico led to a broad increase in prosperity.

   So, things started out difficult under Chretien, and generally improved. But Justin Trudeau cannot say the same.

   Rather – as noted above – things are getting worse.

   Justin Trudeau took over in 2015 with a majority government and a balanced budget. Canada was well-respected, especially for our strong performance following the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The biggest issue – as defined by how much attention it got – was whether to legalize marijuana, something that seems like a quite naïve and innocent issue when compared to pandemics and wars.

   Canada was also relatively safe, drug overdose deaths were much lower, housing was way more affordable, inflation was under control, and the feeling that life would be better in the future was widespread. There was widespread support for our immigration system that had reached a good balance between addressing Canada’s aging population and

   After all, the fact that people were willing to elect a relatively inexperienced and vapid individual like Trudeau – albeit with a name that carries significant credibility and historical resonance in Liberal circles – is a testament to how unserious things felt in 2015. The stakes felt low, so taking a chance on someone who promised more spending and ‘feel-good’ progressive rhetoric was appealing to many Canadians, especially given that Trudeau’s two main opponents (Harper & Mulcair) were seen as more dour, serious, and angry personalities.

   But times have changed significantly.

   Canada must now contend with the aftermath of a pandemic and the economic/social/political damage caused by draconian lockdowns.

   There is a massive land war in Europe, and China is arming itself at a rapid pace, which necessitates a build-up of Canada’s increasingly underfunded and demoralized Armed Forces, especially given that our allies are losing patience with our freeriding on defence.

   The ‘Canadian Dream’ is now out of reach for wide swathes of the country, and the Liberals appear completely unwilling or unable to muster up a level of seriousness that meets the moment. Instead, they just borrow and spend more money while retreating to their old talking points.

   Thus, the Liberals are increasingly perceived as the ‘negative’ and angry party of the status quo.

   Poilievre has thus been given an opening to seize the role of ‘positive national leader,’ and he has done so with gusto.

   Robbed of their strongest political asset in terms of public perception, the Liberals are more vulnerable than ever.

   NDP
   When it comes to the NDP, their leader Jagmeet Singh must be starving because Pierre Poilievre has been eating his lunch day in and day out.

   Jagmeet Singh is getting outflanked on nearly every political/policy issue – including issues the NDP once owned.

   Think about it this way.

   If someone told you a few years ago that an Opposition Party Leader would be surging in popularity on a message focused on housing affordability, more opportunities for working class Canadians, a focus on ‘common-sense of the common people,’ was making big inroads among young people, and was ahead among unionized Canadians, who would you have imagined that leader to be?

   Jagmeet Singh, the head of the NDP of course.

   But that’s now how it has turned out.

   In what could go down as one of the biggest political blunders of all-time, Singh chose to abandon his role as an Opposition Leader and instead decided to ally with the Liberals. While not forming a technical coalition – he didn’t get any cabinet seats – Singh has turned the NDP into an extension of the Liberal government, pledging to keep the Liberals in power until 2025. This has resulted in the Liberals getting a de facto majority government – something Canadians denied them in the 2021 election.

   The NDP has supported the Liberals in key Parliamentary Committees and at the moments of highest pressure – the Emergencies Act Inquiry & demands for an inquiry into China’s foreign interference – Singh pre-emptively stated he would not force an election, doing a huge favour for the Liberals.

   Unfortunately for Singh, his support for the Liberals has robbed him of the ability to set the NDP apart as a real alternative to the Liberals.

   Singh unable to take political advantage of Canada’s decline under the Liberals because he is associated with that decline.

   Now, Singh is clearly aware of this problem, but his attempt to remedy it has been laughable. Singh simply makes social media posts and statements where he pretends to oppose the Liberals while completely ignoring the fact that he is still propping them up in Parliament.

   Unsurprisingly, most of his posts are received quite negatively. Singh is trying to have it both ways at once, taking credit for the few popular things the Liberals do, and then pretending to be opposing them when they do something unpopular.

   It’s not working.

   Usually, when the Liberals decline in the polls much of their support goes to the NDP. But even amid the Liberals dropping into the 26-28% range in some surveys, the NDP remains stuck in their usual 17-20% range.

   All the lost Liberal support is going to the Conservatives, and key political demographics like young Canadians and unionized workers are moving towards the Conservatives, not the NDP.

   Singh has tied the NDP brand to the Liberal brand, at a time when the Liberals are associated with Canada’s decline.

   As a result, Singh has vacated the space of ‘change leader’ almost completely. Poilievre now has that space almost all to himself.

   Both the Liberals and NDP have a similar problem. They have both moved so far to the left – particularly on economic issues & ‘climate action,’ that they are unable to offer any tangible improvement or solutions to Canada’s issues, because those issues are a result of far-left policies.

   On issue after issue, including immigration, drug policy, military spending, taxes, government spending, sentences for criminals, etc., Canada needs to shift back to the centre. Since Poilievre is the only major candidate offering a shift away from the far left, he is the only real choice for those who want a credible chance to vote for a real change in policy.

   Coupled with his positive message, Poilievre has the Conservative Party in better shape than at any time in the past eight years.