“Sell The Last Rate Hike”
That is a recent quote from market analyst Michael Hartnett, as well as pretty much consensus stock market historical perspective. The common wisdom is that the period of time from the last rate hike until the first rate cut,(usually 6 months to 2 years) stocks fall. They then reverse higher, once the cuts begin. The problem has usually been that previous FED Chairmen obfuscated their actions so you weren’t sure when the hikes were going to stop and the cuts begin.(usually only after a crisis brought on by the hikes) While this time Powell has made it seem like he is transparent about what the FED is doing, that only pertains to the long range goal and plan. He has still been obfuscating about the possible need for additional hikes, and the ultimate terminal rate. That is on purpose for two reasons. To not telegraph to the markets that they are done and that stocks should be sold. (at least before the banks were told that was the case and why stocks have been falling for weeks) They also want people believing that they are still fighting inflation and may hike again, because they don’t want to trigger an upside explosion in gold and silver which always happens when they stop hiking. So while insiders pretty much know the hikes have finished for this cycle, the general public will come to realize it as the economic data continues to weaken, stocks resume their decline at an accelerated pace and gold and silver rocket higher over the next two months.
Interesting…….
Time will tell. I’m not convinced they are done hiking but we’ll see.