Goldtent TA Paradise

PIERRE P. NAVIGATING THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   August 28, 2023 - 3:10 pm at 3:10 pm

   As the Conservatives continue to surge in the polls, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has shown he can deftly-handle contentious issues. I will explain how Poilievre has found a ‘third way’ to campaign as a Conservative in Canada, and how this outside the box thinking is reminiscent of successful political leaders (in terms of getting elected) across the political spectrum.

   After a look at that, we will review another big week in Canadian public opinion polling.

   Poilievre’s ‘Third Way’

   Successful politicians across the political spectrum tend to find a way to break away from conventional wisdom and embrace a ‘third way’ of doing things, often finding creative and unorthodox ways to rise above political challenges.

   For example, former U.S. President Barack Obama combined a ‘conservative’ demeanour with progressive policies at a time when Americans were desperate for a shift in direction but wary of electing someone with less experience. Rather than ‘moderate’ his policies, Obama presented a moderate image, and it worked.

   Former U.S. President Donald Trump also found a ‘third way’ of doing things, combining celebrity status with policy stances that deviated from Republican orthodoxy to narrowly win an election at a time when a Democratic Party victory was seen as a given.

   Current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ran an unconventional campaign in 2015, outflanking the NDP on the left while presenting himself as the candidate of ‘positive’ & ‘generational’ change. Though Trudeau has since become a deeply unpopular politician, his 2015 campaign delivered the Liberals a majority government.

   In the United Kingdom, Tony Blair managed to rebrand the Labour Party as ‘New Labour,’ jettisoning many of Labour’s most socialist policies and rhetoric in favour of a more market-oriented approach.

   In all these cases, winning campaigns were built around finding the ‘third way’ to do things, often confounding both supporters and opponents on the path to victory.

   And I believe that is exactly what Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is doing.

   Consider how Poilievre has been handling some of the most contentious issues in Canadian politics.

   Both immigration and parental rights (relating to what many see as the excesses of sex education in some instances) are issues that usually see the Conservatives being put on the defensive. Desperate to avoid accusations of being racist & bigoted, Conservatives will shy away from those issues, which doesn’t stop the Liberals and much of the media from applying those negative labels anyway.

   This leads to most Conservative politicians making one of two choices:

   1) Completely avoid those issues

   2) Say what you think the Liberals would say

   Erin O’Toole tried the latter, while Andrew Scheer tried the former.

   Andrew Scheer is clearly a socially conservative person who also believes the government should generally step back from imposing any specific set of values on the population. Unfortunately, Scheer struggled to articulate this during the 2019 campaign, thus simultaneously upsetting many social conservatives (who saw him as unwilling to take a stand) and leaving himself open to the usual ‘hidden agenda’ attacks from the Liberals, NDP, and the media.

   Erin O’Toole went in the completely opposite direction. O’Toole shifted the Conservative Party towards the Liberals on nearly every issue, adopting Liberal positions on the carbon tax, deficit spending, and firearm rights. This demoralized many Conservative Party supporters, while failing to win over any wavering Liberal supporters. After all, if you want massive deficits, ever-increasing carbon taxes, and absurd restrictions on law-abiding gun owners, why would you switch from the Liberals?

   Both O’Toole and Scheer followed the conventional wisdom, merely picking a different version of it.

   Yet rather than chase the Liberal view of public opinion, or try to avoid public opinion by avoiding contentious issues, Pierre Poilievre is doing something different:

   Letting public opinion come to him, without compromising on his principles.

   Here’s what I mean by that:

   Many Conservative supporters have been demanding that Pierre Poilievre take a public stance against increased immigration levels. They want Poilievre to explicitly state that he will cut immigration, and they want to know the specific number of newcomers a Conservative government would admit into the country.

   Poilievre has steadfastly refused to do so. He has instead refocused attention on role of the Liberal government in exacerbating the housing affordability crisis and has noted that the immigration system is breaking down under the Liberals – without citing the number of those being admitted as the cause of that breakdown.

   At first, this would appear to be following the ‘Scheer playbook’ of avoiding the issue, but there is a crucial difference. Poilievre is openly discussing the housing shortage, the breakdown in social program quality, and the increasing financial desperation of Canadians. As he does so, others are filling in the blanks.

   Nearly every major Canadian newspaper has published articles and editorials discussing how surging immigration levels are becoming untenable. Even Liberal Ministers are starting to admit that they may have gone too far when it comes to international student admissions. Major Canadian financial institutions and business publications are discussing the need for a slowdown in immigration levels.

   Thus, rather than having been the first major figure to call for lower immigration – which would have led to him, and his party being tagged (unfairly of course) as ‘anti-immigration’, Poilievre has let public opinion arrive at that conclusion all on its own. We see here the benefit of Pierre Poilievre having a strong understanding of economic principles. Poilievre surely knows that surging immigration levels are having an impact on social programs and the housing affordability crisis. He knows that as those problems get worse, Canadian banks, businesses, and any politician with even a middling understanding of things will realize that ongoing immigration increases are simply not sustainable. Thus, he doesn’t have to be the first or loudest person to say it.

   This approach has worked quite well. We are nearing the point where a slowdown in immigration will become a consensus position in this country, all without Poilievre taking significant heat on the issue.

   Poilievre has done something similar when it comes to parental rights.

   Early on – when the issue of parental rights started to gain traction in the United States and then make its way to Canada – some demanded that Poilievre take a clear stance.

   Poilievre generally demurred, saying the issue should be left to the provinces.

   Yet again, Poilievre avoided making himself the face of a contentious issue.

   And this was a wise move.

   While much of the parental rights movement is justifiably concerned with what is happening in some schools, there have also been those trying to use it as a ‘trojan horse’ to demonize LGBT people.

   Given time, those groups will tend to diverge, as well-meaning people will want to remain focused on the issue at hand and not have their legitimate concerns hijacked by more extreme and hateful groups.

   Jumping into the issue early would have left Poilievre – and by extension the CPC – open to being linked to some of the far-right groups in the United States who use rhetoric that would turn off many of the more moderate voters the Conservatives are seeking to win over.

   Of course, by waiting, Poilievre faced criticism from some for supposedly being ‘weak’ or ‘evasive’ on the issue.

   Yet, look at how it has turned out.

   Responding to growing public concern, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs put forth parental rights legislation. Scott Moe in Saskatchewan is doing the same. In Manitoba, the governing PC Party is also running on expanding parental rights.

   Thus, rather than aggressive outside groups being seen as the face of the parental rights movement, a growing number of Canadian Premiers are seen as taking the lead.

   And now, when asked about the issue, Pierre Poilievre states that parental rights must take precedence over the government. Poilievre thus manages to stay true to his limited government principles (in a free society children should be raised by parents, not the state), align himself with some Canadian Premiers, and be seen as responding to a genuine shift in public opinion.

   While the Liberals have of course still tried to attack Poilievre and the Conservatives on the issue, the Liberals are the ones who are out of step with public opinion here, and their attacks have so far failed to resonate.

   Pierre Poilievre appears to have a found a ‘third way’ to campaign as a Conservative in Canada. Rather than avoid issues indefinitely, and rather than just say what the Liberals want him to say, Poilievre carefully waits for public opinion and other prominent credible voices to move in his direction, and then makes his position clearer.

   It’s not easy to do. It means withstanding weeks and even months of being criticized by some of your own supporters, and it means refusing to provide the controversial soundbites that generate so much attention these days.

   Yet, when we look at the polls – which we will address in detail in the next section – Poilievre’s approach is working, and he may very well have found the ‘third way’ that will vault him into a select group of history’s successful politicians.

   Overview of national polling
   As their position in the polls declined, the Liberals have been desperately hoping to see a significant shift in public opinion.

   And this week, they got exactly that.

   However, the shift wasn’t quite in the direction they expected.

   Rather than see the polls tighten, the Conservative advantage has increased.

   A pair of surveys – one by Mainstreet Research, and the other by Abacus Data, gave the Conservatives a massive lead in the national popular vote.

   Mainstreet put the Conservatives at 41% compared to the Liberals at 28%, with the NDP at 15%.

   Abacus put the Conservatives at 38% compared to the Liberals at 26% and the NDP at 19%.

   Both polls show the same trend: The Conservatives surging, the Liberals declining, and the NDP remaining stuck in the 15%-20% range.

   This is notable, because you would generally expect to see the NDP gain support as the Liberals lose it. What this indicates is that Poilievre’s pitch to young Canadians and working-class Canadians is working, as he peels off support the NDP would have once counted on. Since Jagmeet Singh has tied himself and the NDP so closely to that of the Liberals, he cannot take political advantage of the Liberals declining standing among the public. In fact, since he is seen as an extension of the Liberal government, the NDP may become less popular as the dire state of things in this country becomes more and more clear.

   This is also evidence that Pierre Poilievre – as mentioned above – is effectively positioning himself and the Conservative Party as the party of change, without scaring off those who are seeking an alternative to the terrible status quo under the Liberals. By letting public opinion come to him on contentious issues, and by hammering away at the affordability crisis, Poilievre has become the change candidate at a time when a significant portion of the population wants change.

   As for how these polls impact the seat and popular vote projections, the shift has also been noticeable.

   According to 338Canada.com, the Conservatives are now projected to win 39% of the national popular vote, with the Liberals far behind at 29%. The NDP would win 18%, the Bloc 7%, the Greens 4%, and the PPC 3%.

   The Conservatives are on track to win 178 seats, decisively ahead of the Liberals at 105. The Bloc would win 32 seats, the NDP 21, and the Greens 2.

   The Conservatives have a 98% chance of winning the most seats, while the Liberals have a 2% chance of doing so.

   There is a 67% chance of a Conservative majority, compared to a 32% chance of a Conservative minority. There is a 2% chance of a Liberal minority.

   The most likely ‘coalition’ to reach a majority isn’t a coalition at all, as the Conservatives are projected to reach a majority all on their own.

   The Liberal + NDP + Green combined would win just 128 seats.

   There is just a 1% chance that the Liberals & NDP combined would win a majority of seats.

   In short, this week saw a big polling shift further towards the Conservatives.

   So far, all the Liberal attacks on Pierre Poilievre, all the rampant overspending, and all the distraction attempts – like picking a fight with ‘big tech’ – have failed to improve the Liberals’ standing among Canadians.

   Canadians are reacting to things on the ground, rising crime, a cost-of-living crisis, a housing affordability crisis, and economic stagnation. The polls are beginning to reflect the fact that the Liberals have been in power for eight years and can no longer run from their record or the consequences of their policies.

   Spencer Fernando

2. Strider says:

   August 28, 2023 - 4:39 pm at 4:39 pm

   Poilievre îs just another chicken shit leader pretending to be conservative. Sorry Fully, but it has to be said.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     August 28, 2023 - 6:21 pm at 6:21 pm

     I disagree.

     I like him

     He is far beter than any Potential Leader we have seen since John A. IMO

     It’s your nature to be negative on all politicians I guess

     I am pumped to see the Turd get Flushed…thats job 1…then we shall see

     • silver fox says:

       August 28, 2023 - 6:58 pm at 6:58 pm

       I agree with you, Fully, 100%.

       We will have a prime minister on way or the other. So who should it be? Pierre Poilievre stands head and shoulders above everyone else.

       He is making the Turd look like the idiot he is. Poilievre has my support and my vote.

     • Strider says:

       August 28, 2023 - 8:28 pm at 8:28 pm

       It has nothing to do with my nature, Fully. It has to do with my experience. Canadians never hear a conservative argument on any issue of import. Politicians who profess to be conservative never make them. Has Poilievre stated that anthropomorphic climate change is a hoax? Has he disavowed the use of the clot shots? Has he committed to deconstructing our failing socialist health care system? Has he called out the judiciary as being an ideological group of fools who care less about the law than their next cocktail party? Has he put forward a realistic plan to balance the budget and pay down the debt. Has he called for a halt to immigration so that we might integrate the millions of recent arrivals over time. Has he decried the education industry as a complete and utter failure that has denied our children the tools to function in a modern economy. Has he led Canadians in revolt against our disgusting support of nazis in the Ukraine and war with Russia, a country that has never lifted a finger against us. Shall I go on? Perhaps it would save time if someone were to educate me about a conservative policy that Poilievre actually, and unequivocally, favours.

       • Columbia says:

         August 28, 2023 - 9:44 pm at 9:44 pm

         PP follows the polls. I believe he will eventually come out against the Covid Madness. Our numbers are there. The Ukrainian conflict will likely be a moot point by the time the next election occurs.
         He can hit The Turd with out of control spending which includes the war, shots and other costly measures.
         He’s the best leader we are being offered.

       • Fullgoldcrown says:

         August 28, 2023 - 11:12 pm at 11:12 pm

         1…He supported the Truckers Protest so yes he favors medical freedom of choice

         2…He is FOR Parental Righs and against State control of our children

         3..His is a fiscally responsible Conservative ( see his famous session with the Turds discussing where does the monely come from to fund your Multi billion dollar project )

         4…He has called for a halt in Immigration ( read this article)

         5..He has a plan to promote more Housing by fining municipalities who have too many restrictions and supporting those who don’t

         6..Ukraine…if you follow This Author..he explains in Canada Ukraine is a Hot button issue . We have More Ukrainian Born people in this country ( before the war) per capita than anywhere else in the world and most are Conservative. You cannot win by pissing off these people…You have to secure Power before you can make moves to help withdraw support

         7…His debates with the Turd are epic…he skewers him every time

         8…and for me the most important point..he has specifically come out against the new world order ( aka the WEF) he would ban anyone in his party from associating with klaus and the mob

         9…what Columbia says below…he is NOT for destroying the Canadian bread and butter oil and gas Industry .

3. Columbia says:

   August 28, 2023 - 9:46 pm at 9:46 pm

   He’s not perfect but it’s a start. His stance on the Carbon Tax and the Oil and Gas industry will prevent a collapse of our economy. The pendulum will swing.