Whenever markets have major trend changes, from bull markets to bear markets and vice versa, they end up tricking as many participants as possible. They don’t ring a bell at the top or bottom. The one thing I am sure of is, IF, I am going to be correct that Silver is about to break out soon, it is not going to follow the usual seasonal pattern that everyone and his brother, knows and talks about. With both gold and silver having been manipulated by use of the COMEX paper contracts(silver to a much greater and more detrimental extent) for more than 50 years, when the end of that manipulation comes and silver is set free to respond to true supply and demand, it isn’t going to be on the same schedule that has been ingrained in traders and investors psyche. Either, I am wrong that it is going to happen in Sept. or October, in which case if we do get the usual buying only at the end of November, as we have been conditioned for decades, then chances are it will be business as usual.(possible but unlikely) A rally that gets shorted again sometime in the late winter or early spring and the manipulation will continue for another wash and rinse cycle. On the other hand, if the changes in rules, the documented flows of physical silver out of the Comex vaults to London and onto Asia, is leading to a serious shortage in silver that is about to be reflected in price, it isn’t going to wait until November so everyone can be correct by following the seasonal trend and get long before it happens. They are not going to offer everyone, Silver (on a silver platter) if this is actually going to be what we have been waiting decades for. Be long or be wrong, when Silver is long gone.