If we haven’t already already achieved both on today’s swing.

The pessimist in me believes the recent lows in the miners could be tested between now and October or even marginally broken and that even if a major low has been struck the action is likely to be extremely choppy.

The optimist in me probably thinks the same thing, lol.  But I am not going to rule out a quick move back up to the July high.  My biggest concern for a breakout beyond that level is the weekly Ichimoku cloud, which is red and flat topped until mid October.  I would normally not expect the top of that type of cloud to be successfully pierced (which represents a HUI price of about 250)–it’s possible but its not something I would put money on.  It’s my experience that flat tops or bottoms on clouds pose serious resistance, so a durable move above such a cloud would require an explosive move IMO.

I think the best window for the HUI to break above the 230-250 price band will come between the week of October 9 and the end of October–which in my view represents a clear zone between clouds (see blue box below).  If we are below 230 by the time November comes around, I would be pretty concerned about the viability of a bull scenario out to spring or summer of 2024, which would obviously be demoralizing.

Again, nothing is written in stone (this analysis is a little better than tea leaves), and if the HUI blows through 250 in the next few weeks and never looks back, I will be thrilled.

As an aside, silver’s 200 dma just bullishly crossed above the 600 dma and already bullishly crossed above the 400 dma a couple of months ago.  I really would not want to see silver drop below its 200 dma (currently around $23.33) again for the foreseeable future.