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Buck, a new poster, posted a podcast episode from the Value Hive detailing the investment case for Oil services stocks TDW, RIG, VAL and others…
THANK YOU!!!!
The podcast was so compelling that I jumped on board immediately.
For all those interested…
Yes Buck is a Keeper
He says he doesn’t have much to add so will post sparingly…I don’t think so
🙂
Fully, check out a few tickers: FTI, NE, SUBCY, XPRO and OIH is the broad ETF…check out a 15 year, monthly chart on that one.
Bull market?
LOOKS Good…ROOM TO GROW
https://schrts.co/HsHamajD
@Hermit I posted twice. First time I mentioned these stocks (exception was DO, forgot to mention it)
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?RIG,TDW,VAL,NE,DO|B|0
Per memory, end of June, just as they started to more. If you entered then, congratulation, since then they moved decently. The timing was just pure luck, I suck at timing.
Just so you know, don’t rely on me, I’m just wannabe I will get you in trouble. I suggest you do this, when you hear some compelling story, put charts together like I did above for several from that industry, sector and start watching them and in the mean time try to learn as much as you can about the story. Then you wait. Wait until you get general markets correction, we should be close now. When everything starts correcting, then at some point try to get into the players if your reserch confirmed the story and you still want them.
The guy I follow is hedge fund manager Harris Kupperman (Kuppy) in few years he multiplied his portfolio few times. He is heavy in offshore. But he was in TDW already few years ago when stock was still trading lower month by month. His positions are LT, check him out. His biggest position is JOE. I told my friend about it. He was watching and watching this stock, which was slowly going higher. At 50 he bought it. Soon it started to drop. Wen it got bellow 40, he sold it just few months ago. Today JOE is 55 and in few years will most likely be few hundred. My friend had great stock, lost money on it and will not ride it into those profits. Because he bought it at wrong time. If he would be patient and wait on correction, he would now be in JOE and have profit and he could hold it for a few years.
So, be careful how you jump into some story. (this luck this time will just reinforce this behavior and you will be hurt later). Learn story, do some research, still like it, still want it? Wait on correction, be patient.
Now about story. When I mentioned these, someone was talking about price of oil. Make sense, right? They are dependent on oil somehow. But the main point is, for offshore to make profit, oil can be in $30-$40 range. Most onshore costs are much higher. With price of oil, in 70’s or 60’s there is plenty of profit. Only if you believe oil can be at or bellow 30 for extended of time, then this sector is not appealing.
New rigs to build them, cost now around 1B! A lot. Day rates are way way to low to start ordering new ones. Order book is empty and will be for a few years. And this is the bull thesis. Not enough rigs, deep water drilling platforms. And more discoveries in deep waters lately, while shell oil production is declining. There will sooner or later be war for these drillers.
I have some on shore companies I decided I will sell. And I would like to have more invested into off shore. But I will not be buying and adding here. If it goes higher good, I already have some positions. But I will be buying more only after some strong enough correction.
My two cents and remember, I’m just a wannabe.
Correction, I just checked JOE chart. My friend said he paid close to 50, so this stayed in my mind. So he apparently payed around 47. But regardless of the price, point is, wait on general correction for buying, when everything good and bad is dragged down.