Goldtent TA Paradise

THE GREAT RESET : SAN FRANCISCO GOES FIRST

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   June 18, 2023 - 2:17 pm at 2:17 pm

   Some of the most valuable real estate in the country will soon be available for pennies on the dollar, and it’s happening even faster than we expected. The Financial Times ran a story yesterday headlined, “Defaults Raise Alarm Over Stability Of San Francisco’s Commercial Property.” The sub-headline explained, “Owners have handed back the keys to some of the city’s most valuable real estate.”

   Well. It was FORMERLY valuable real estate. Not so much, now.

   San Francisco’s downtown troubles are zippily getting worse. According to the Financial Times, office vacancies there have surged to 30%, highest of any large U.S. city. San Francisco’s hotels have watched helplessly as their average daily room rates slid down to only $207 — one of just two large US cities where rates have not increased.

   It’s hard to find ANY Florida hotel, even budget “suite” hotels, for $207 per night. San Francisco stands alone with its plummeting hotel rates.

   It’s obvious. Nobody is going to San Francisco unless they absolutely have to:

   This week, the two largest downtown San Francisco real estate owners, Westfield and Brookfield Properties, announced they both stopped making payments on a half billion-dollar loan secured against San Francisco’s sprawling downtown mall and conference center they’ve jointly owned since 2002.

   They now plan to surrender the premises to their lenders. It’s the banks’ problem.

   Just before that, publicly-traded Park Hotels & Resorts announced it will hand over two of its prime San Francisco hotels — the Hilton Union Square and the Parc 55 Wyndham — after it stopped making payments on a $725 million dollar loan. The hotels were valued over $1.5 billion back when the loan was issued seven years ago in 2016.

   Surrendering property — voluntary foreclosure — is a desperation move. I practice in commercial law and have worked out many bank loans for clients in commercial real estate situations. If a client can’t afford their commercial loan, their first move is to sell the property, pay off the loan, and keep the equity, which is the excess of what they net from the sale after paying off the loan balance.

   Even if a client can’t sell because the property is upside-down in the loan, meaning they owe more than the property is worth, there are still usually a lot of potential workout options. And, the bigger the loan, the more flexible the bank is likely to be, given its own risk.

   Workout examples include negotiating a period of interest-only payments, flat-out payment deferrals, agreements to postpone foreclosure litigation, and a universe of possibilities in chapter 11 bankruptcy, either in reorganization or even a slow-motion liquidation spread over years.

   But just handing the keys back? That’s the last box on the flow chart. It smacks of desperation, multiple failed bank negotiations, and a conviction there are no other options.

   Just a few years ago, Park Hotels’ flagship San Francisco hotel properties were valued at $1.5 billion. They only have a $725 million loan, leaving immense paper equity of $775 million. But obviously, Park thinks its luxury hotels’ property values have plummeted even MORE than $775 million over just the last seven years, or else Park would have SOLD its hotels instead of defaulting.

   It’s probably more like just over the last three years.

   At this point, Park, Westfield, and Brookfield must have all ruled out any other kind of workout, which they surely have been trying, and they even ruled out chapter 11 reorganization. There’s no hope of reorganization.

   It’s a horrible signal about the San Francisco real estate market, the worst, and Financial Times knows it. I can’t remember anything like this, ever.

   For months, I’ve been describing what looks to me like an engineered destruction of San Francisco, engineered destruction designed to deliver cheap buying opportunities to salivating oligarchs.

   Consider this staggering admission by the Financial Times article:

   The defaults could trigger a fire sale of commercial property in the city, as lenders rush to offload assets at significant discounts to reduce their exposure and protect bondholders… In San Francisco’s financial district, some office towers have changed hands in recent months for a quarter of the price they were marketed at three years ago…
   “Even if you can buy a building today at 50 cents on the dollar relative to the loan balance that doesn’t mean it’s a home run purchase,” said [commercial real estate expert Lonnie] Hendry. “We don’t know the floor yet.”
   A quarter of the price! And we don’t know the floor yet.

   It’s a staggering admission because financial media like the Times are under lots of pressure to soft-pedal bad news. Real estate prices react to news, good or bad, so owners routinely pressure financial news sources not to badmouth their properties. If the Financial Times is describing things this gloomily, you can be sure the truth in San Francisco is much, much worse.

   “Architects of Disaster” — San Francisco’s Smug Board of Supervisors as of March 2022
   Private property owners aren’t the only ones who will be affected. San Francisco is already projecting nearly a billion-dollar shortfall in tax revenue. Not that it has slowed down its spending any. As you recall, the brainless nitwits on the city council recently voted to pay black residents $5 million each in “reparations” (or something), a hopelessly idiotic vote Governor Newsom was forced to quietly smother in the crib.

   The truth is, these dummies aren’t nearly smart enough to save San Francisco. That’s the city’s real problem now. While the oligarchs almost certainly have engineered this disaster, the voters are getting what they deserve. They allowed themselves to be emotionally manipulated and teased with unfulfillable promises of free money, services, and paybacks to their political enemies, and so voters elected loads of people who are obviously subhuman members of a criminal syndicate rather than serious citizens who can fix hard problems.

   Historically, people having active-duty combat experience enjoyed a huge advantage in running for political office. That’s mainly because voters trusted veterans to have basic common sense, and more importantly, know how to solve problems under pressure. You can’t live through combat without learning those skills.

   The mistake we’ve all made is being voluntarily manipulated into believing the delusion that a candidate’s intangible beliefs — thinking the right things — are better qualifications for office than conclusive evidence of actual accomplishment.

   Back to San Francisco. Another big problem looms. Large office buildings selling for heavily discounted prices will rapidly erode the city’s tax base. Rising numbers of defaults are already spurring blame-shifting and hand-wringing over the precipitous drop in city tax revenues, a spiraling, self-reinforcing cascade of property value losses that could fuel what experts call a taxation “doom loop.”

   The one thing you really don’t want is a doom loop. That’s sort of understood from the name.

   Do you see the big picture yet? They’re running a Great Reset on San Francisco. Property had gotten too expensive. Real estate prices were sky-high, unrealistically unaffordable. Those stratospheric property values fueled vast tax revenues, which then fueled insane public policy decisions, truckloads of graft, and rail containers of outright corruption.

   One solution is to destroy downtown and start over.

   Apart from the rampant crime, open drug use, and unlivable public policy, nothing has fundamentally changed about San Francisco. It remains extremely unique and desirable real estate. So, when the oligarchs are ready, all they need to do is pass some “tough on crime” laws, put some people with IQs above 80 in office, and give it ten years.

   In other words, they’re tearing the city down to the studs so they can build it back better. It is being “reset.” And I’m starting to wonder whether that’s really a bad thing or not. Maybe the only way out is through.

2. Chartsmaster says:

   June 18, 2023 - 2:56 pm at 2:56 pm

   Reset is the way to go but it isn’t going to happen until you get a whole new set of politicians who aren’t woke. You need to get back to prosecutors enforcing the laws, funding police, cleaning out gangs and drug addicts etc. etc. It is going to take years and the people need to stop electing and supporting leftist libtard politicians.

3. Farmer says:

   June 18, 2023 - 3:06 pm at 3:06 pm

   I don’t know if I should even bother to mention this but does anyone recall Jeff Nyquist saying that the Chinese land invastion of America would be happening in California and that the attack protocol of the Chinese navy is to begin with nuclear first strikes followed by a full amphibious landing unopposed. Do you think that could be why these big companies appear to be in a panic to depart….because maybe its true?

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     June 18, 2023 - 3:30 pm at 3:30 pm

     NAH !

     BUT THAT WOULD MAKE FOR A GREAT ACTION MOVIE

     • Farmer says:

       June 18, 2023 - 6:12 pm at 6:12 pm

       Are you sure Fully? I mean, are you really so positive? The program name is one clenched fist. Russia and China in a joint attack. Its a plan going back many years and was supposed to have been initiated already except Trump got elected and the thing was delayed. Jeff talks about it all the time and it does not sound improbable to me. Maybe I am a sucker for a story though.

       • Fullgoldcrown says:

         June 18, 2023 - 7:15 pm at 7:15 pm

         I don’t buy the story.

         No one is SURE

         But I think it’s NUTZ

         • Farmer says:

           June 18, 2023 - 9:32 pm at 9:32 pm

           Hope you have a Plan B then….lol

4. Chartsmaster says:

   June 19, 2023 - 6:19 am at 6:19 am

   I agree with FGC but if the Chinese and or with Russia were going to attack, they are at least going to wait until we collapse on our own, which we are already doing. What is happening in SF and other major cities is just the beginning. When the dollar and US economy collapse that would be an opportunity for the Chinese who we know are strategic, patient and long term thinkers. They aren’t in any hurry. The longer they wait, the easier it becomes and the higher percentage of a successful outcome.

   • Farmer says:

     June 19, 2023 - 7:55 am at 7:55 am

     They have already attacked. Don’t you see? The Chinese were caught bragging how they had killed us with the vaccines. Its just a matter of time for the actual defeat to be recognized but its happening apace. Fullgoldcrown does not see this for what it is. He is not putting the pieces together for some reason. But its not just a coincidence that our military men have been destroyed through illness nor that their equipment has been sent off to other countries so its not within reach. Its no coincidence they are flooding men across the Southern border or that a few hundred thousand mainland Chinese are already known to be in Canada just waiting for the day. All of North America has been compromised. National security was unable to stop it. Orders from the top have permitted the enemy to get positioned. They have reportedly already brought in uniforms and weapons by container loads and they sit latent awaiting the time. Why do you think they are promoting vaccinations in British Columbia so heavily? Because that will be occupied land in a few years time. The invasion beachheads are all along the Pacific Coast from California all the way to Alaska where the Russians will enter. Don’t kid yourselves this is not happening…..its taking place right in front of your eyes right now if you just wake up and pay attention.

5. Chartsmaster says:

   June 19, 2023 - 8:16 am at 8:16 am

   Semantics. First you said they were going to attack with nukes. Now you say they have already attacked. I agree, you correctly laid out they have initiated the stealth preparations for an attack by planting troops inside both Canada and the US(prepatory infiltration before the actual attack) but they are patient and strategic. When the economy and financial system collapses they aren’t going to need the nukes. They will just walk in and take over because he who holds the gold sets the rules. If you are going to use nukes why bother with everything else, there won’t be anything left to take over and what do they gain? Why destroy what you can take over and control economically?

   • Farmer says:

     June 19, 2023 - 6:58 pm at 6:58 pm

     Gold eh? You are delusional.

6. Chartsmaster says:

   June 19, 2023 - 7:38 pm at 7:38 pm

   Delusional about what? Does China not have more gold than anyone else? You might try to make intelligent arguments not nonsensical comments. I try to have intelligent debates and you are the one with the attacks and personal comments. Then when I respond you get all huffy and whine like a child.