As mentioned that this weekend I would present some views on commodities and while I have presented WEAT, NATGAS and COAL there are sure more. While WEAT has completed its’ HALFWAY measured pattern and a bottom seems plausible. NATGAS jumped from support though came back and COAL (via BTU) is at breaking point (make/break) while possibly arguable the low could be in but if BREAKS a plunge could follow.

So just glancing those three, commodities are at a inflicting point. So what does CRB (commodities index) inform us?

Lets’ start with a close-up; 6-year weekly. Since almost a year CRB is trading below the important W-EMA(30) and has not been able to recover. Therefore CRB is in a 1-year BEAR TREND. Observe the Thin Black (horizontal) Fibonacci and is approaching 38.2% retrace but I don’t find it enough. More plausible and functioning as a magnet is the 50%-FIB retrace @ 215 which equals the GREEN HOR. QUADRANT lines as well tags the W-MA(200) @ 216. Such retrace would make CRB sink 17% which would be significant already. Would the ‘2020-runnaway’ GAP @ 125 ever get filled?

If CRB does not get above WEMA(30) quickly then a decline towards 215 seems more likely. Such could coincidence with the charted CYCLES into the week of 17th July-2023. Keep this in mind!

Here CRB 33-year weekly chart you probably never have seen presented you before. Most remarkable is the BLUE FORK. For CRB to get above 300-320 would mark a BO and for such more work need to occur.

But for me something is off with CRB for which one observe TWO sets of charted CYCLES. Main question for such would be: do we take 1999 or 2001 as point of origin for setting the cycles within this 33-year time frame? Observe two significant LOWS (1999 and 2001). Although the LIGHT BLUE CYCLES seem fitting for which we make a LARGER GREEN CYCLE and we get a 2023-Q2 LOW; possibly a significant LOW. Remember this is a LT-weekly-chart and dates can be a few weeks/month OFF.

But … when taken 1999 as point of origin which also was GOLD-LOW we also get an interesting charted (GREY) cycle with next cycle low due July-2024 (+/-). This date resonate with many other charts I have. But also look at the BLUE FORK set @ 1999 and makes me believe more in the GREY-1999-set of charted cycles.

So how low can CRB go (into 2024)? If the W-MA(200) @ 215 gives way … probably much lower. The BLUE FORK is something to keep an eye on as for SUPPORT. Moreover there is a RED FORK parallel to the BLUE FORK. If with any (system) crash, CRB and therefore commodities will crash along … the lower line of the RED FORK ‘could’ get tagged and strangely enough such tag during next GREY CYCLE LOW would come @ 122 and would fill’ da CRB-GAP @ 125. I would not be surprised for such to occur.

To become bullish for commodities, CRB needs to get above the WEMA(30) and where a BO of the BLUE FORK would seriously signal a commodities BULL RUN ahead!

July-2023 is significant to watch for CRB next LOW. Nevertheless CRB is at RED HORIZONTAL SUPPORT and such kind of SUPPORT we have also seen on WEAT, NATGAS & COAL. Therefore for Commodity bulls, this RED HOR LINE needs to HOLD otherwise a DROP follows.  But as long as this RED.HOR.Line holds … the LIGHT BLUE CHARTED CYCLES give CRB-BULLS perspective.

Interesting alternative view is we get a Double Bottom (DB) at both CYCLE LOWS; July-2023 & July/October-2024. My personal view is an October-2024 SIGNIFICANT LOW.

This concludes My COMMODITY analyses for now. Hope you find it valuable, interesting and have  appreciated it.

IMO. DYODD.