Admission of recession in the “revised” numbers from BLS
“In the first quarter of 2023, nonfarm business sector productivity decreased 2.1 percent, a smaller
decline than the previously reported decrease of 2.7 percent. Output was revised up 0.3 percentage point
and hours worked were revised down 0.4 percentage point. Unit labor costs increased 4.2 percent rather
than increasing 6.3 percent as previously reported, reflecting a 1.3-percentage point downward revision
to hourly compensation and a 0.6-percentage point upward revision to labor productivity. In the
manufacturing sector, productivity was revised down from a 1.3-percent decrease to a 2.5-percent
decrease, reflecting a 1.5-percentage point downward revision to output and a 0.2-percentage point
downward revision to hours worked. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 3.1 percent rather than the
preliminary estimate of 3.4 percent, as a 1.6-percentage point downward revision to hourly
compensation was largely offset by a 1.2-percentage point downward revision to productivity.
Table B2 shows previous and revised productivity and related measures for the business, nonfarm
business, manufacturing, and nonfinancial corporate sectors for the fourth quarter of 2022.
“In the fourth quarter of 2022, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector was unrevised,
retaining the 1.6-percent increase reported last month. Hourly compensation, however, was revised
down from the previously reported increase of 4.9 percent to a decrease of 0.7 percent, due entirely to a
downward revision to compensation. As a result, unit labor costs decreased 2.2 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2022, rather than increasing 3.3 percent. Labor productivity in the total manufacturing sector
was revised down 0.2-percentage point to a decrease of 3.2 percent, the result of a 0.3-percentage point
downward revision to output, which contracted at a 3.7 percent rate. Hours worked were unrevised,
decreasing 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Hourly compensation was revised down 4.9 percentage
points to a 0.1-percent decrease; this led to a 4.8-percentage point downward revision to unit labor costs,
from an increase of 8.0 percent to an increase of 3.2 percent.
“In the nonfinancial corporate sector, productivity fell 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 rather than
rising 0.7 percent as previously reported, due to a 2.8-percentange point downward revision to output.
Hours worked were unrevised, increasing at a 1.2 percent rate. Annual average productivity in the
nonfinancial corporate sector decreased 2.2 percent in 2022, rather than the preliminary estimate of 2.0
percent. Nonfinancial corporate sector productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in the
current business cycle. This rate is the lowest cyclical rate for this series, which begins in the first
quarter of 1947.
Any further evidence needed?
Full text: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf