Loading ...Yesterday Was A Trickle…
Today, a stream and we are still in May, which was a horrific month for metals prices. Tomorrow comes June and the likely beginning of a steady flow. As June progresses, the flow of capital from equities, bonds, commodities and real estate will become a deluge into gold and silver, leading into a cascading crescendo in July, washing away any doubt.
Sir CM,
Not so much a horrific month for the physical metal prices, but for all all paper assets related to PMs, including miners, especially the juniors.
Given that the debt ceiling debate IS REALLY DIFFERENT THIS TIME, and given that S&P and Nasdaq are now ripe for a correction (NOT A CRASH, yet), I’m thinking some scenario now triggers a DECLINE in bond yields … just what it is I can’t tell.
There’s this guy on Twitter who has been tweeting about a blow off top in the broader markets.
“I have the most bearish bond forecast on the Street for the 2nd half of this decades with rates going to high double digits. But the global bust in the next year will send rates to new all-time lows in 2024 before rates begin their steep rise.”
One indicator is TBT. It topped in October 2022. I looked at TBT chart and I’m not able to figure out where it might bottom. Will 10 year yields go under 3% in a recession scenario? Or under 2.5%?
Will the next big round of money printing be delayed until markets crash too much?
I see the same difficulty in trying to analyze if TLT is bottoming, will it go under 100 again?
What does technical analysis indicate for either TLT or TBT? I don’t think we will see a double top in TLT, circa the near zero rates in the Covid crash.
So, where and when does TLT top out? Charts will lead the events, as always. Any chart analysis is appreciated.
GL
Nothing to add re the bond market at this time. Rates are so fragmented between short and long term. If I see any clues will let you know.