I just thought it was a good idea as a refresher on the optics of war to point out the results of the United Kingdom facing off with Argentina during the 1982 Falklands war. This is instructive on several levels but the key point is the heightened risks involved when a major power meets a genuine contender in a war setting. Argentina in 1982 was not some Third World basket case as it appears today. The country was well armed and prepared to do battle. So risk was heightened and lessons would be learned.

The UK sent a task force of 127 ships across the Atlantic in order to retake the Falklands from the Argentine invaders. They very nearly lost the war proving that maritime projection of power was utterly insufficient to dominate as it had in prior wars. But the key event that had the world riveted was how easily critical vessels could be eliminated from the war theatre with little more than a few missiles. Argentina owned exactly five such missiles at the time. One of them had the name of the HMS Sheffield written as its target. That Exocet shot from a distance of less than 30 miles sunk one of the UK’s finest ships and maritime history was rewritten.

It also put an end to the old theory of projection of power at sea. Going forward, big ships would be mere targets.

The Sinking of the HMS Sheffield was accomplished with a single accurate missile strike.

So ask yourself what value is a carrier group? I think the Chinese have already answered this question by saying they would sink one or two US Aircraft Carriers just to teach America a lesson about floating in their seas. Will Russia be any more tolerant? I think we need to anticipate that Aircraft Carriers will be sunk if this war in Ukraine continues. There should be no doubts at all in that regard.  And when it happens there will be a realignment of the military equation across the globe because those carrier groups are the literal muscle and embodiment that has held up US hegemonic power all these years. Fine when your adversary is Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan….maybe not so great when your adversary is the worlds second major military power.

The Gerald R Ford has been deployed to Norway this past week on its first mission. Parked just 1000 miles from Moscow it is well within striking range of Russian missiles and it is a legitimate target should there be a more direct confrontation. The F16 fighter jet transfer now in progress may be the event that triggers a direct clash. I don’t know of course but the rhetoric has certainly ramped up in the past days. That suggests to me that the Gerald R Ford with its large compliment of F35’s and nuclear weapons capabilities is going to be pretty high on the target list. This is called leading with your chin in the boxing world. Inviting a knockout blow in other words. And it may bring about the most dangerous event any of us have witnessed in our entire lives as an attack and sinking would not go unanswered.

You may want to keep a few extra batteries on hand just in case. Because the lights will be going out.

The Falklands War – Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War