Loading ...VIX
Markets seems to go nowhere and volatility rules, giving traders & investors no grip on the market. Mr. Market constantly flipping the direction and capsizing the boat. Although I believe that VIX is heavily being manipulated and not that strong indicator for the SM anymore, still TIME might still give us some intel.
VIX-daily (6 months)
New 8 month low for VIX indicating that there is no-fear. VIX is in a (possible) ending Triangle with an APEX around 19th of May.
VIX-daily (18 months)
With these PURPLE CYCLES charted, we get a better grip on Volatile VIX. The (same) BLUE TRIANGLE pointing to the middle of the smallest cycle (19th May) and acts as a magnet. Therefore around End of May we could see both a LOW and a SPIKE into a High for VIX. Such can be translated that (ALL) MARKETS will be levitated marginally higher and/or goes sideways into/around 19th of May. After that Markets decline eg. drop not (yet) necessary crash.
The charted cycles makes one wonder, where markets are going? Possibly MARKETS might remain ‘unchanged’ eg. levitated into End of Janaury-2024 as the Charted CYCLES suggest making traders (possibly) numb and ‘unaware for what is coming’. And with such volatility remains giving traders & investors no grip.
Former chart translated in a 7 year VIX chart gives you …
Observe LARGE BLUE FORK and a BLACK DASHED BULL FLAG (formed since 2020). VIX seems to have BO-UP the BLACK BULL FLAG and is in progress of BT (back-testing) since 2022. As I like predictive charting using CYCLES & TIME, we can see again the End-January-2024 VIX CYCLE LOW but also an interesting match with VERTICAL Fibonacci (FIB) at/around End-January-2024 which gives us also a point of confluence; BLUE FORK meeting BLACK Bull Flag. VIX possibly going for 10-ish LOW.
Alternative view, with what we have learned past few years, the Stock Markets might have been alienated (as well). Superfluid intelligence ruling ALL MARKETS under the MASK of Ai. Trading Humanity fooled by Ai believing The Market is always right. Nope: traders & investors being robbed by your compliance! Possibly soon to lose it All.
IMO. DYODD.
The Vix Looks Dead NG
You are right…all controlled by AI
Humans have little cance in this Game
We need to find new games
Still I believe TIMING (read TIME) can be distilled from charting (TIME & CYCLES). This post gives a view on that.
AI will certainly, if it hasn’t already, take over the intraday trading.
At the very least, I can’t compete on speed and that is a POV I took many years ago. Leave the day trading for others. Catch the bigger moves AND SIT.
As for VIX, I watch it first and foremost as it relates to the main indices. UVXY just made a fresh low. So if you believe in IHS patterns, you wait for a possible neckline to form with a LS, and then prepare when the RS starts to form.
As for “little chance” … its not one sandbox, but lots of smaller sandboxes piled into a common space, so focus around the edges not where the crowd and the big money hangs out.
I agree with your thoughts Nightingale, there is no market anymore. All of it is technnicallly choreographed down to the smallest pixel and can be only be traded successfully with an algo of your own design that will capture inconsistencies in the competing alogos. This is something I have been watching for years now. The charts are pure math exhibiting virtually no sign of genuine emotion that would represent human traders.
The sentiment indicators are worthless therefore and do not represent human emotion but rather trends of math calculations as they appear in traditional technical indicators. It is indicator measurement in other words, not raw feelings of fear and greed. There was a time as recently as a decade ago when you could still trade as a human but those days are long gone now. Your best bet these days is to attempt to trade on directional bets medium term and leave the short time frames to the machines where they excel.
To do that you need deep enough reserves in your account to be able to hold a position when you feel sure of a reversal and then let your bet trend one way or another capturing a piece of the move. That’s the reason I count candles and watch time frames and cycles. There is still a market cycle that can be played if you examine an hourly chart closely. But forget about competing on lesser scales like the 5 minute. Actually I find the 15 minute time frame suits the task best.
In days past nobody would even imagine trying to trade fom 15 minute bars but its come to that now since the algorithms are not so adept at killing off your trade when you get below that scale. Your strategy is to bite the bullet and avoid thinking too hard about all the little squiggles as they happen while keeping your eye on the time cycles and direction and not to fear the trade going against you for hours on end. If you picked the direction right you can come out with winners in spite of the computers and take back some of the loose change the machines leave behind.
I get the feeling we’re on a glacial snowbridge, it all looks the same until it doesn’t. Thanks NG.