Goldtent TA Paradise

THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS ABOUT “DONE”

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   April 25, 2023 - 10:04 am at 10:04 am

   Right on schedule! Before I describe this next story, cast your mind back over the miles of muddy roads, the closely-framed shots of a single burned-up Russian tanks and trucks, the carefully-rehearsed scenes of villagers fleeing across town squares, the narrowly-shot images of holes in the sides of Soviet-era apartment buildings, and most of all, the ceaseless barrage of headlines constantly promising imminent Ukrainian victory, Any. Second. Now.

   Ukraine’s war machine appears stuck in political mud
   Just a few billion more tanks and it will all be over.

   Maybe not so much. Yesterday, Politico ran an uncharacteristically gloomy story headlined, “Biden’s Team Fears the Aftermath of a Failed Ukrainian Counteroffensive.” Failure? Of Ukraine? Not Russia? And the sub-headline, “Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.”

   Wait, what?

   It was only yesterday morning that I suggested to you all the recent leaking might very well be a fake news pysop setting up a major Ukraine narrative shift. Well, stand back. It’s shifting.

   Politico didn’t even try to dress it up in flag-waving, democracy-saving rhetoric. It’s pure politics:

   [I]f the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum.
   And guess what? It was the LEAKS! Just like I predicted:

   Those concerns recently spilled out into the open during a leak of classified information onto social media. A top secret assessment from early February stated that Ukraine would fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals. More current American assessments are that Ukraine may make some progress in the south and east, but won’t be able to repeat last year’s success.
   See, it’s not Biden’s fault. He’s kept up the lying and cheerleading about how well and bravely Ukraine was doing. But what is he supposed do about the bungling Ukrainians who can’t seem to win anything?

   Keep in mind all the hyper-optimistic stories explaining exactly how Ukraine was always right about the teach the Russians a lesson they’ll never forget? Now, not so much:

   Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.
   Wait, now the definitive Spring Counteroffensive that is going to change everything “can’t begin?” At least, not until the U.S. does something? Whose war is it? And I thought the Ukrainians were killing Russians ten-to-one? I thought we were all committed to the last Ukrainian? I thought the policy was, “not one inch?”

   How could the dastardly Russians have turned things around on a dime like this? Whatever can be done?

   Cue the peace deal, entering stage left:

   There is belief that Kyiv is willing to consider adjusting its goals, according to American officials, and a more modest aim might be easier to be sold as a win. There has been discussion, per aides, of framing it to the Ukrainians as a “ceasefire” and not as permanent peace talks, leaving the door open for Ukraine to regain more of its territory at a future date.
   But WHY? What happened to always being practically sick of all the Ukrainian winning? All the muddy, blown-up tanks and wrecked missile launchers? Suddenly, without warning, Ukraine isn’t doing so well after all:

   It doesn’t help America’s confidence that the war has slowed to a brutal slog. Both sides have traded punishing blows, focused on small cities like Bakhmut, with neither force able to fully dislodge the other… The fighting has taken a toll on the Ukrainians as well. Fourteen months into the conflict, the Ukrainians have suffered staggering losses — around 100,000 casualties — with many of their top soldiers either sidelined or exhausted.
   A hundred thousand casualties? Top soldiers sidelined and exhausted? Is that “disinformation” or something?

   And, remember how in yesterday’s post I invoked the baleful specter of a sudden and unexpected Afghanistan-like departure? Did you think that was over the top, like our beloved pro-Ukraine commenters? Well, Politico did the exact same thing that I did:

   U.S. officials have also briefed Ukraine on the dangers of overextending its ambitions and spreading its troops too thin — the same warning Biden gave then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as the Taliban moved to sweep across the country during the U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
   Uh oh. Ukraine just got the same warning from Biden that the Afghanis got. That can’t be good.

   Don’t get me wrong. I will say it again, even clearer this time. I do not relish Ukrainian defeat. I have nothing but sympathy for the Ukrainian people who’ve been mashed like cauliflower in a grotesque, illegal Proxy War over secret deep state biolabs and NATO’s military-industrial brinksmanship. Ukrainian citizens deserve as much justice as jab victims.

   But when Finland joined NATO last week, it gave the deep staters a much better-protected border with Russia, making Ukraine expendable. That’s bad news for Ukrainian nationalists as well as for the Finlanders. Now add Russian hypersonic missiles taking out top NATO generals.

   That’s got to hurt. I think this whole Ukraine war thing has a very short clock running. Time for peace!

2. Kewl2 says:

   April 25, 2023 - 11:26 am at 11:26 am

   Why in the world would the country that’s winning accept anything less than total capitulation from their defeated opponent as well as iron-clad guarantees that the conflict would never happen again?